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Tuesday, Nov 09, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish with no downtrend counters. Even a mild bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to reduce the bull count by a considerable margin thereby neutralising the sentiment reading. On the contrary, the sentiment reading is likely to become extremely bullish. Strong bear move on Tuesday would probably change the sentiment reading to bearish.

Nifty futures recommendation: The November month contract opened three points higher than its previous close and went further by another 15 points. Later on, bears made a strong comeback and recovered most of the day's losses. The November contract moved within a band of 19 points. It closed with a gain of 5 points above Friday's close.

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The long position in the November contract is locked-up with a decent profit of 20 points. The exit and bearish trigger level for the November contract are placed quite far away. These levels are unlikely to be triggered on Tuesday.

Stock futures recommendation: Except for Infosys and Maruti, all the other counters in the list are in the uptrend. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in seven counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in two counters. The best bet for Tuesday's trading is likely to be the selling in Maruti. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its current level. Bear move on Tuesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Maruti.

Cash segment: Monday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter-Satyam. Five out of the ten counters in the list are in the sideways mode. Bear move on Tuesday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list.

Bears are likely to have opportunity in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Selling in SAIL is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very closer to its closing price. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in SAIL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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