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Thursday, Nov 11, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull domination

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish.

Bear domination on Thursday is likely to reduce the bull count by a considerable margin, thereby changing the sentiment reading to bearish. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading to extremely bullish.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The near month November contract opened one point above Tuesday's close and made steady gain during the day's trading. Bears were not able to make any impact during the day's trading. The November contract moved within a band of 18 points. It closed higher with a gain of 19 points.

The long position in the November contract is locked with a profit of around 56 points.

In the normal course of trading on Thursday, the uptrend is likely to continue. However, bear domination has the potential to terminate the uptrend. Bearish trigger level for the November contract is still placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Satyam and Reliance Industries. Bulls were successful in initiating the uptrend in the recommended counter - Satyam.

Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the lone downtrend counter - Ranbaxy is likely to be under threat.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. The best for Thursday's trading is likely to be the buying in Tata Motors. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Thursday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Motors.

Cash segment: Wednesday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter - Reliance. None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend.

Bear move on Thursday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in list.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in three counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Buying in Infosys is likely to be the best bet for Thursday's trading. Buy level for this counter is placed within Rs 2 from its last traded price. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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