The Hindu Business Line : Rust scare raises concern about soyabean prospects

SOYABEAN production in the US has been upped by another 1.2 million tonnes (mt) and projected at a new high of 85.7 mt for 2004-05, an increase of a massive 18.9 mt from last year's 66.8 mt as per the latest assessment of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

But the detection for the first time of Asian rust disease in two research plots in the US has begun to raise serious concerns about the prospects next season.

As for the current season, higher harvested area and record yields have made the record output possible. Yields are at 42 bushels an acre this season versus 38.5 bu/acre last year.

Bolstered by a large crop in the US, world soyabean output for 2004-05 is projected at 230.1 mt, a big jump from 189.5 mt last year. For China, the crop size is unchanged from last month at 17.5 mt, but up from last year's 15.4 mt.

Brazil and Argentina, the world's second and third largest producers of soyabean, are expected to produce 64.5 mt and 39.0 mt respectively in 2004-05, up from their last year's weather and disease-affected numbers of 52.6 mt and 34.0 mt respectively.

While the crop elsewhere is under harvest, the South American crop is being planted and weather conditions are said to be satisfactory.

The agency has continued to project Indian soyabean crop at 7.0 mt, a number many in the domestic market see as overstated. Indian soyabean output last year was 6.8 mt.

World production of major oilseeds is projected at a record 388.5 mt for 2004-05, compared to 336.4 mt of last year. All the major countries, except India, producing oilseeds contribute to the increase.

Global palm oil production is projected to rise further to hit a new high 30.2 mt in 2004-05, up from 28.7 mt in the previous year and 27.3 mt a year earlier. Increases are marked for the two largest producers Malaysia and Indonesia.

Malaysian palm oil production is estimated to rise to 14 mt (13.4 mt) and that of Indonesia 11.5 mt (10.6 mt).

Meanwhile, reports of detection of rust problem in US soyabean are beginning to cause concern. While the crop this season, which is substantially harvested will not be impacted, the aggressive form of fungus could severely damage crops next year and beyond, it is apprehended.

The fungus, known as Asian soyabean rust, was reportedly discovered last week for the first time in the US in two research plots run by Louisiana State University. The disease, which attacks leaves and stunts development of bean pods destroyed crops in South America last year.

It remains to be seen how the US government and soyabean farmers tackle this issue in the coming months. Fortunately, the next planting season begins in May 2005, providing a lead time of up to six months.

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