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Wednesday, Nov 17, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull onslaught

K. Premkumar

BULLS were in total control of Tuesday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. Even a mild bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: Initially, the November contract lost around five points. Bears failed to capitalise on it as they yielded to bull pressure. The November contract moved within a band of 18 points. It closed higher with a gain of 12 points over Friday's close.

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The November contract is in the sideways mode. Bullish trigger level for the November contract is placed closer to its last traded value. Bull move on Wednesday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in November contract. Bearish trigger level is placed quite far away and this is unlikely to be triggered on Wednesday.

Stock Futures Recommendation: State Bank, Reliance and Satyam were the top three traded counters in this segment. Bear move on Wednesday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in four counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in two counters. Buying in Tata Steel is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bullish trigger level is placed very close to its current level. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Steel.

Cash Segment: Tuesday's market action resulted in initiating the uptrend in three counters. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the downtrend in ONGC and Reliance is likely to be under threat.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Reliance and SAIL. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in SAIL, Tata Steel and Wipro. The best bet is likely to be the buying in SAIL. Buy level for this counter is placed within a rupee from its last traded price. Bull move on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in SAIL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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