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Wednesday, Nov 24, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

BULLS gained control of Tuesday trading activity. However, their dominance led only to the extent of reducing the bear count. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral.

Further bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bullish. Bear domination has the potential to change the sentiment reading in its favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: The November month contract opened with a bull gap of four points and made steady gains during the day. Bears were unable to make any impact during the course of the day's trading. The November contract moved within a band of 21 points. It closed with a gain of 19 points with respect to previous close.

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Bull domination during the day led to the reversal of the downtrend in the November contract. The short trade exited with a loss of five points.

In the normal course of trading on Wednesday, the initiated long position is likely to continue. Bearish trigger level for the November contract is placed quite far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The top three active counters in the list were Reliance, Tata Steel and State Bank. Bull domination during the day reduced the bear count by a considerable margin.

Most of the counters in the list are in the sideways mode. Bear move on Wednesday could be a threat to the uptrend in ONGC and Satyam. On the contrary, the lone downtrend counter Reliance is likely to be terminated.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in eight counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters.

Buying in Maruti is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading.

Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed just above the last traded value. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Maruti.

Cash segment: Tuesday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter Wipro.

Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in ONGC and Satyam.

On the other hand, the downtrend in Reliance is likely to be under threat.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in as much as eight counters. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in State Bank.

The best for Wednesday's trading is likely to be the buying in Maruti. This counter is in the sideways mode.

Buy level for this counter is placed within Rs 2 from its closing price. Bull move on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in Maruti.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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