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Thursday, Dec 02, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

WEDNESDAY'S market action was quite indecisive. The day's action reduced the bull count marginally. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment reading is likely to turn extremely bullish.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hour of Wednesday's trading, the December contract went down by 17 points. Bulls made a strong comeback and wiped out their losses.

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The December contract moved within a band of 28 points. It closed with a gain of around 5 points with respect to Tuesday's close.

The long position in the December contract remains intact. The long position in the December contract is locked up with a decent profit of 24 points. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, the uptrend is likely to continue. However, bear domination on Thursday has the potential to terminate the uptrend. Bearish trigger level for the December contract is still placed quite far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. Tata Motors moved to the top slot followed by Tata Steel and Satyam.

Bear move on Thursday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the lone downtrend counter-Satyam is likely to be terminated. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters.

Buying in State Bank is likely to be the best bet for Thursday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its last traded value. Bull move on Thursday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in State Bank.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 active counters list. The ranking of the list underwent changes. None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend.

Bear domination on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in two counters.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Buying in State Bank is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. Buy level for this counter is placed just above its closing price. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the uptrend in State Bank.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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