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Friday, Dec 03, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull onslaught

K. Premkumar

BULLS were in total command of Thursday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands strongly bullish. Bear domination on Friday has the potential to reduce the bull count by a substantial margin. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: The near month December contract opened with a bull gap of 7 points and made steady gains during the day's trading. Bull dominance left the bears stranded. The December contract moved within a band of 29 points. It closed higher with a gain of 31 points with respect to previous close.

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The long position in the December contract remains undisturbed. The same is likely to continue on Friday. The exit and bearish trigger levels for the December contract are placed quite far away. In the normal course of trading on Friday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had few changes. Reliance moved to the second position followed by Satyam and Tata Steel.

Bear pressure on Friday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the downtrend in Infosys and Satyam are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Satyam. The best bet is likely to be the selling in Ranbaxy. This counter is in the uptrend. Bear domination on Friday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in Ranbaxy.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable counters remains intact. The ranking of the list underwent a change. Infosys and Satyam interchanged their position.

Bear move on Friday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the lone downtrend counter — Infosys is likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in ONGC and Satyam. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Satyam and Wipro. The best among the above is likely to be the selling in Satyam. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to trigger a fresh downtrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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