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Friday, Dec 10, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear run arrested

K. Premkumar

BULLS were successful in terminating the two-day long bear run.

Thursday's action resulted in increasing the bull count marginally. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly in favour of the bears.

Click here for table

Further bull pressure on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bullish. On the contrary, prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the open, the December month contract went down by five points. Bears failed to capitalise as they yielded to bull pressure. The December contract moved within a band of 25 points. It closed with a gain of 17 points over Wednesday's close.

Initial bear move led to the termination of the uptrend in the December contract. The long trade exited with a profit of 58 points. Re-entry level is placed quite closer to the last traded value. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to re-instate the uptrend in the December contract. Bearish trigger level for the December contract is still placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list underwent a change. Satyam and Tata Steel interchanged their positions.

Bull pressure on Friday could be a threat to the prevailing downtrend counters in the list. Bear move is likely to terminate the four uptrend counters in the list. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

Buying in Infosys is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Friday has the potential to trigger a fresh uptrend in Infosys.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top 10 tradable list. The ranking of the list too remains intact. Bears were successful in initiating the downtrend in the recommended counter-ONGC.

Bull domination on Friday is likely to terminate the prevailing downtrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the uptrend in Maruti and State Bank are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in as much as seven counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in two counters.

Buying in ONGC is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. This counter is in the downtrend. The exit and buy levels for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to reverse the prevailing downtrend in ONGC.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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