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Friday, Dec 24, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

THURSDAY'S trading activity witnessed narrow movement. Neither the bulls nor the bears could gain much from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly in favour of the bulls. Bear domination on Friday is likely to reduce the bull count by a considerable margin thereby resulting in a change in the sentiment reading. Otherwise, the sentiment reading is likely to turn extremely bullish.

Nifty futures recommendation: The December month contract opened around its previous close and made steady gains during the day's trading. Bears were unable to make any impact during the day. The December contract moved within a close band of 15 points. It closed with a gain of 12 points above its previous close.

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The long position in the December contract remains undisturbed. In the normal course of trading on Friday, the long position is likely to continue. However, bear domination has the potential to terminate the uptrend. Bearish trigger level for the December contract is placed slightly away from its current level.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list underwent a change. Maruti and Tata Motors interchanged their positions.

Bear move on Friday is likely to terminate the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the uptrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat.

For Friday, three opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading. The best bet is likely to be the selling in ONGC. This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and bearish trigger levels for this counters are placed within a rupee from its last traded value. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to trigger these levels.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged.

Bears were successful to the extent of terminating the uptrend in the recommended counter - Tata Steel. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to terminate the uptrend in Maruti, State Bank and Tata Motors.

On the other hand, the downtrend in Infosys, Satyam and Zee Tele are likely to be under threat.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in five counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Buying in Tata Steel is likely to be the best for Friday's trading.

Buy level for this counter is placed very near to its closing price. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to re-instate the uptrend in Tata Steel.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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