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Wednesday, Dec 29, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull domination

K . Premkumar

BULLS gained control of Tuesday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish. Bear move on Wednesday has the potential to reduce the bull count by a considerable margin thereby resulting change in the sentiment reading. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: The December month contract opened three points above its previous close and made steady gains during the day's trading. Bears were unable to make any impact during the day. The December contract moved within a band of 21 points. It closed higher with a gain of 19 points over Monday's close.

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The long position in the December contract remains intact. The position is unlikely to be disturbed on Wednesday. The exit and bearish trigger levels are placed quite far away. In the normal course of trading on Wednesday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list too remains the same with no major changes. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Reliance and State Bank.

None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. Bear domination on Wednesday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in four counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Buying in Ranbaxy is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its current level. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in Ranbaxy.

Cash Segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Tata Steel moved to the sixth position followed by Satyam and Canara Bank.

Further bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counter in the list. On the other hand, the lone downtrend counter-Zee Tele is likely to be under threat. Four opportunities are likely to exist in either side of trading. For Wednesday, the best bet is likely to be the selling in Infosys. Sell level for this counter is placed quite closer to its last traded value. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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