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Friday, Dec 31, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

BEARS gained control of Thursday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bearish. Bull domination on Friday is likely to reduce the bear count by a considerable margin thereby resulting a change in the sentiment reading.

Nifty futures recommendation: The January month contract opened four points above its previous close and went further by another three points. Later on, bears took charge of the day's proceedings. The January contract moved within a band of 25 points. It closed with a loss of seven points with respect to Wednesday's close.

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The long position in the January contract expired. This trade is likely to be closed out at 2059.80 with a profit of around 26 points.

Bullish entry level is placed comparatively closer with respect to the bearish trigger level. Bull move on Friday has the potential to reinstate the uptrend in the January contract.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged.

The ranking of the list had few changes. State Bank moved to the second position and Maruti to the fourth position.

None of the counters in the list is in the uptrend. Bull domination on Monday is likely to terminate most of the downtrend counters in the list. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in seven counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters.

The best bet is likely to be the buying in State Bank. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bullish trigger level is placed closer to its last traded value. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to initiate the uptrend in State Bank.

Cash segment: The top-10 tradable list underwent a change. ONGC gained entry with the exit of Canara Bank. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes. The uptrend in Canara Bank is likely to be terminated at Rs 201.70.

Bull pressure on Friday could be a threat to most of the downtrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the lone uptrend counter Tata Steel is likely to be terminated. Bears are likely to have opportunity in three counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters.

Selling in Zee Tele is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. Bear move on Friday has the potential to initiate a fresh downtrend in Zee Tele.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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