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Thursday, Jan 20, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

THE market remained directionless for the third successive trading day.

The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly in favour of the bears. Bull domination on Thursday has the potential to turn the sentiment reading to bullish.

On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The January month contract opened with a bull gap of six points and went further by another 14 points. Later on, bears gained control of the day's proceedings. The January contract moved within a band of 29 points registering an intra-day low of 1918.65. It closed with a marginal loss of two points over the previous close.

The short position in the January contract remains intact. The exit level for the short trade has been changed and the position as such has locked up with a substantial profit of 140 points.

Bullish trigger level for the January contract remains unchanged. Bull domination on Thursday is likely to terminate the downtrend in the January contract.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable counters remains undisturbed. The top three traded counters in this segment were Reliance, ACC and Tata Steel.

Bear pressure on Thursday could be a threat to the uptrend in Infosys and Tata Steel. On the other hand, the downtrend in ONGC and Tata Motors are likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in two counters. The best bet is likely to be the selling in State Bank. This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and sell levels for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bear move on Thursday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in Tata Steel.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list too remains intact. The exit level for the downtrend in ONGC and Zee Tele are placed at 778.85 and 163.70 respectively.

Most of the counters in the list are in the sideways mode. Except for the downtrend in Maruti and SAIL, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Selling in Satyam is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within a rupee from its last traded price. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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