The Hindu Business Line : Foodgrain output seen at 206.39 mt on rabi turnaround

Accordingly to the Agriculture Ministry's Second Advance Estimate of production for 2004-05 released here today, the country's foodgrain output this year, at 206.39 million tonnes (mt), is lower than the 212.06 mt figure for 2003-04.

But the significant point is that production of rabi grains during 2004-05, at 103.45 mt, is expected to exceed the previous year's level of 100.01 mt. This would partially offset the steep decline in production during the kharif season, from 112.05 mt to 102.94 mt.

However, these are still early figures because the crucial rabi crops such as wheat, mustard and gram are still a couple of months away from being harvested.

A sudden rise in temperatures during March or untimely rains - as was the case last year - can very well change the picture of the standing crop.

As of now, wheat output during 2004-05 is estimated to touch 73.03 mt, up from last year's 72.06 mt. Production of rice, too, is slated to go up marginally, from 87 mt to 87.80 mt. This, in turn, is due to a record rabi crop of 14.51 mt (against 13.08 mt during 2003-04), which will offset a slight decline in the production of kharif rice, from 73.92 mt to 73.29 mt.

On the other hand, the production of coarse cereals is estimated to register a sharp dip, from 37.77 mt in 2003-04 to 31.88 mt in 2004-05.

While output of jowar is expected to rise (from 7.33 mt to 7.53 mt), it would be contrary in the case of maize (14.72 mt to 13.58 mt) and bajra (11.79 mt to 6.46 mt).

Pulses production is also expected to be lower, at 13.67 mt during 2004-05, against the all-time high of 15.23 mt for the previous year.

The output of gram is expected to rise marginally from 5.77 mt to 5.78 mt this year.

A similar rabi turnaround is being projected for oilseeds. While overall output during 2004-05 would be lower (248.42 lakh tonnes (lt) compared to 251.43 lt), production of rabi oilseeds is slated to hit a high of 100.81 lt (against 81.34 lt of 2003-04), and it will partially make up for the dip in kharif (from 170.09 lt to 147.61 lt).

The Ministry expects production of rapeseed-mustard at an unprecedented 75.89 lt during 2004-05 (58.32 lt in 2003-04).

Sunflower production would also be higher (12.41 lt versus 10.86 lt), while output would fall for groundnut (from 83.32 lt to 64.76 lt) and soyabean (from 78.54 lt to 77.52 lt).

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