The Hindu Business Line : Iraq: No vote on clarity

ELECTIONS in Iraq have come and gone, bringing more people out to vote than expected and fairly peacefully too. But in a country whose future continues to be more uncertain than ever, the only certain factor now is that a Shia coalition will come to power.

The significantly higher-than-expected turnout, particularly in the Kurdish and Shia areas, indicated that these segments for long oppressed and persecuted under the former President, Mr Saddam Hussain, braved militants' threats and came out to vote so as not miss out the chance to install a Shia government.

At the moment, the good voter turnout seems to have vindicated the faith both the US President, Mr George W. Bush, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, had placed in the Iraqi people's longing for democracy. But just because the long-suffering Shias and the Kurds came out to vote in an election that was at least not a sham as during the Saddam era, hardly means they support or endorse the US-led coalition's occupation of Iraq.

Yet, it is not clear if the election would provide the much-required escape route for the occupation forces, which have been getting it the last 20 months from Saddam loyalists and insurgents of other hues. But what it will certainly do is install a Shia regime. There is widespread expectation that the Bush Administration will try to `restore' the balance in the new Iraq Parliament, which the Washington loyalist and American-installed interim Prime Minister, Dr Iyad Allawi, hopes to head. That both Washington and its loyalists in Iraq are worried over the very real prospect of Iraq being ruled by a top heavy Shia — something that will send shock waves in the Sunni-dominated Arab world — was well evident in Dr Allawi's appeal a day after the ballots were sealed.

Offering to hold the strife-torn nation together and bring in "peace and stability," at a a press conference he offered to head a coalition government, at the same time saying that whatever the results, he will ensure that Sunnis are included in the set-up as also on the panel that will write the new Constitution. So much for the American brand of democracy!

This is clearly seen as an attempt to break the loosely-knit Shia coalition that fought the election under the umbrella of the United Iraqi Alliance with the blessings of the most powerful and influential Shia leader, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. There is little doubt that Dr Allwai has the backing of the American administration and for Shia leaders hankering for power that was denied them under the Saddam rule, our own time-tested political mantra of `aya Ram, gaya Ram' might appear practical.

But whoever rules Iraq, it is doubtful if it will be able to end widespread insurgency and violence that have devastated the civilians. The Iraqi society has been traumatised and is now so deeply divided that every group is suspicious of the other and is in a hurry to grab power by hook or crook. Killings and kidnappings are the norm and no foreigner feels safe on the Iraqi streets. In a recent article, the West Asia veteran, Mr Robert Fisk, had reported how the world media was covering Iraq and how most Western journalists had been told by their managements and editorial bosses not to leave their hotel rooms.

Wrote Mr Fisk: "Rarely, if ever, has a war been covered by reporters in so distant and restricted a way. The New York Times correspondents live in Baghdad behind a massive stockade with four watchtowers, protected by locally hired, rifle-toting security men, complete with `NYT' T-shirts. Journalists with America's NBC television chain are holed up in a hotel with an iron grill over their door, forbidden by their security advisers to go swimming or even to the restaurant, let alone elsewhere in Baghdad, for fear of attack. Several Western journalists simply do not leave their rooms while on station in Baghdad."

Gory visuals of kidnapped journalists being be-headed have, said Mr Fisk, "persuaded many journalists that a large dose of discretion is the better part of valour. Questions are being asked. What is a reporter's life worth? Is the story worth the risk? And, much more seriously from an ethical point of view, why don't more journalists report on the restrictions under which they operate?"

A question that the media covering Iraq needs to answer, as they depend heavily on Iraqi stringers who are putting their lives on the line simply because too many people know that they are working for Western newspapers or TV channels. And to think that barely a year ago journalists could freely walk around Baghdad or Mosul or Karbala and talk to the man on the street on what he thought of the toppling of the Saddam regime or the future of Iraq. Seems like an era gone by.

Anyway, more important than the media's coverage of Iraq, is the country's future, which does not look too bright at the moment.

The election may have passed off with less violence than expected but it is as if the country has been devastated by a civil war, what with different areas controlled by disparate groups, including mercenaries.

But the inevitable installation of a Shia regime must be spoiling the party of a Bush administration that feels vindicated on the decision to hold an election. Even as Washington growls at Iran to come clean on its nuclear capabilities — though with little affect — it won't be too happy at the prospect of a Shia government in Iraq as it might cosy up with Teheran.

Against Saddam Hussain's belligerence against Iran, a Shia government in Baghdad could hold out a hand of friendship and co-operation. That would hardly suit the American policy of divide and rule. Of course, this any Iraqi government will be able to do only after it wriggles out of the clutches of Americans pulling the strings from Washington.

Elsewhere in the Islamic world too, particularly in Saudi Arabia, the monarchy that is so grateful to the Americans for keeping it safe, in power and against any `machinations' or aspirations of democracy from its people, a Shia regime in Iraq will be looked upon with much suspicion. After all, the Shia minority in Saudi Arabia does not enjoy any great privileges; on the contrary it is looked upon with suspicion by the ruling Sunni monarchy.

Anyway, nobody really believes that the conduct of the elections or the installation of an Iraqi regime will end violence in the country and put it on the road to peace and prosperity.

On the contrary, one only hopes that the Shia regime will not take the country, particularly its women, backward in the name of religion. Iraq under Saddam Hussein had encouraged women, even of only of certain sections and classes, to go in for higher education and take up important positions in the country. Unfortunately, a reversal of this trend is already evident in the post-war Iraq.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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