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Thursday, Feb 03, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Indecisive move

K. Premkumar

THE market remained indecisive for the second successive trading day. Bears managed to gain marginally from the day's trading.

However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

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Nifty Futures Recommendation: The February month contract witnessed a freak quote of 1964.90 as soon as it opened for trading. This quote has been discarded for our analysis and the subsequent low of 2047.10 has been considered. The contract moved within a band of 22 points registering an intra-day high of 2069. It closed with a gain of 13 points with respect to previous close.

The long position in the February contract remains intact. The exit and bearish trigger levels remain unchanged. These levels are placed quite far away from its last traded value.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The top-10 tradable list underwent a change. NTPC gained entry with the exit of ONGC. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes. The exit level for the long position in ONGC is placed at 837.70.

Bear domination on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the downtrend in ACC and Tata Motors is likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in two counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Buying in Maruti is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Thursday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in Maruti.

Cash Segment: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had some changes. SAIL moved to the fifth position followed by Tata Steel and ACC.

None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. Bear move on Thursday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. For Thursday, the best bet is likely to be the selling in ACC. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed just a rupee below its last traded price. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the downtrend in ACC.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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