The Hindu Business Line : World pepper output may decline

WORLD pepper output is likely to fall 20 per cent this year as the low prices in recent years have led to production dip in many producing countries. As a result, the overall supply is estimated to be less than the demand.

The current low prices and the increase in the prices of fuel and fertilisers is said to have compelled many of the growers in the major growing- countries to have either neglected the existing vines or shifted to other remunerative crops.

Consequently, this year the crop size will be 30 per cent less with the big drop being seen in vines belonging to seasoned farmers. However, new vines belonging to new farmers will boost crop size by roughly 10 per cent making the overall decline in crop size at 20 per cent, said areport.

Vietnam, the world's largest producer, had an unusually large harvest last year and the current one is unlikely to be as big. Rains in Vietnam stopped a month earlier than usual and its adverse impact would reflect in the crop, it said.

Add to this, continuous bumper crop has "exhausted' the vines requiring fertiliser applications which the farmers are reluctant to do.

In Indonesia, the farmers had "replaced" pepper vines with other profitable commodities such as oil palm, cocoa and even rubber because of the persistent low prices of pepper, it said.

Besides, the impact of the tsunami on the pepper plantations were yet to be assessed, the report pointed out. In the Bangka Island of Indonesia, the report said, farmers had turned to tin mining removing the pepper vines as an alternative, as the area is rich with tin deposits.

Meanwhile, consumption of pepper in China has substantially gone up in recent years. To meet the growing demand, it imports large quantity of black pepper from Vietnam, while to cover the white pepper demand it has increased local production.

The ever-increasing demand in the domestic market has reduced the exportable surplus of pepper in India, it said. The production is estimated at around 70,000-75,000 tonne.

According to the report, similar to Indonesia, Brazil has been experiencing abundant harvest from 2001 onwards. Consequently, here also the vines are "exhausted" needing nutrients, but the current low prices are depriving plants of the fertilisers. In Malaysia, the cost of pepper production is more due to high labour cost while the prices are at lower levels. This phenomenon has led to a gradual decline in production here too..

World pepper production in 2004 is provisionally estimated to be around 2.94 lakh tonne i.e., 11 per cent less than that of the 3.35 lakh tonne in 2003 mainly due to a drastic fall in production in Indonesia and a marginal decrease in Brazil, India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka.

However, total exports of pepper from the main producing countries - Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam - showed an increase of 13 per cent.

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World pepper output may decline