The Hindu Business Line : Experts bare chinks in weather forecast armour

THE National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), which specialises in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modelling, proposes to significantly upgrade its super computing power and develop competent scientific manpower.

The centre will submit a roadmap to the Department of Science and Technology for its consideration, top officials in the Government said.

This is a follow-up to the international brainstorming session on "Modelling and prediction over Indian Monsoon Region: Vision 2015" held recently at the NCMRWF campus in Noida, New Delhi.

A consensual view that emerged was that despite the progresses made so far, much more needed to be done at NCMRWF, and done fast, too. India could hope to compare itself favourably with other major NWP centres of the world only if it achieved accelerated improvement in predicting weather and climate from short range to seasonal climate scale.

Only then would it be able to benefit and also meaningfully contribute to the science of weather forecasting.

The meeting noted with concern that despite being the only global NWP centre in a region with some of the most complex weather, NCMRWF was still running an operational modal that was dated by at least a decade.

The manpower was less than the order required to carry out the task and that deployed by major centres elsewhere. The computing power was about two orders less than what is needed.

In view of this, the session recommended a series of steps to be implemented immediately for improving the situation:

Significantly upgrade the super computing power if appropriate models and analyses schemes are to be developed and deployed.

Develop competent scientific manpower through regular, dedicated search and selection process and periodic review.

(It takes about five years to groom a numerical modeller in meteorology. In the interim, NCMRWF should develop a visiting scientists programme and hire research associates to meet the immediate requirement).

Periodically review and evaluate the scientific work carried out. An international advisory committee drawn from major operational centres would help.

Update data access procedures: Form a consortium of academic and research institutions with NCMRWF in the lead for focused R&D to improve weather and climate prediction.

The international scientific community emphasised that `limits of predictability over the monsoon region had not been reached.' Better predictions are possible `provided some of the barriers are removed and a well thought of plan is prepared.'

The meeting was significant in terms of its theme as well as the timing, the sources said. Various sectors of the economy have witnessed boom in recent times and there has been an increase in awareness about the impact that weather and climate have on these sectors. Demand for more accurate and customised forecast have increased over the last 10 years.

The monsoon is a planetary scale anomaly, embedded in which are several phenomena of various time and spatial scales that interact in a complex manner. This makes the problem of its prediction intractable by the present day models.

Also worth recalling is the fact that India is surrounded by data sparse regions. Neither does the Indian Ocean form part of the footprint of major observational networks.

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page