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Saturday, Feb 12, 2005

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Bull domination

K. Premkumar

BULLS gained control of Friday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands strongly bullish. Bear domination on Monday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list thereby resulting in a change in the sentiment reading.

Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The February month contract opened two points higher than its previous close and made steady gains during the day's trading. Bull pressure over the day's trading left the bears stranded. The February contract moved within a band of 24 points. It closed higher with a gain of 22 points with respect to previous close.

The long position in the February contract remains undisturbed. The position is locked up with profit of 65 points. In the normal course of trading on Monday, the long position is likely to continue. However, bear move on Monday has the potential to terminate the uptrend in the February contract. Bearish trigger level for the February contract remains unchanged.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no entries or exits in the top-10 tradable list. The ranking had a minor change. State Bank and Satyam interchanged their positions. The exit level for the downtrend in Arvind Mill is placed at 125.65.

Bear move on Monday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the lone downtrend counter— Gujarat Ambuja Cement is likely to be terminated. Buying opportunities are likely in two counters. Selling opportunities are likely in four. For Monday, the best would be the buying in Tata Steel. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its current level. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to initiate the uptrend in Tata Steel.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. Friday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter— Satyam.

None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. Most of the uptrend counters are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in seven counters. Buying opportunities are likely in two counters. The best bet may be selling in Canara Bank. Sell level for this counter is placed quite closer to its last traded price. Bear move on Monday has the potential to trigger the downtrend in Canara Bank.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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