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Friday, Feb 18, 2005

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Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

BEARS maintained their pressure over Thursday's trading activity. Their dominance resulted in terminating most of the uptrend counters in the list. The market sentiment reading of the tradeable counters stands bearish. Bull domination on Friday has the potential to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hours of day's trading, the February month contract lost around 14 points. Later on, bulls made a strong comeback and wiped out their losses. The February contract moved within a close band of 19 points. It closed with a gain of 5 points over previous close.

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The short position in the February contract remains intact. However, bull move on Friday has the potential to terminate the downtrend. Bullish trigger level for the February contract is placed far away from its current level.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as then ranking of the top-10 tradeable list in this segment remains unchanged. Bears were successful in triggering the downtrend in the recommended counter-Reliance.

None of the counters in the list are in the uptrend. Bull move on Friday is likely to terminate most of the downtrend counters in the list. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in as much as eight counters. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in Infosys. The best bet is likely to be the buying in Tata Steel. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded value. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in Tata Steel.

Cash segment: There were no new entries to the top-10 tradable counters in this segment. The ranking of the list had few changes. Maruti moved to the fourth position and Reliance to the sixth position.

For Friday, most of the counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in six counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Buying in Tata Steel is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. This counter is in the sideway mode. Buy level for this counter is placed within a rupee from its closing price. Bull move on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Steel.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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