The Hindu Business Line : Central Asian States

It is only of late that the Central Asian States have come into the limelight, and their ability to make a big difference to the security and economies of the rest of the world have aroused interest. China was all out to woo and win the allegiance of these States. It went about executing its strategy systematically and assiduously — patching up disputes over borders by making concessions, setting up trade missions, providing generous funding for start-ups and development activities, and strengthening its economic links by establishing networks of new infrastructure, says B. S. Raghavan.

OF THE 15 entities constituting the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) (so called because they had the nominal right of secession) which became independent States following its collapse in 1991, only Russia has been attracting the lion's share of attention in the media and corridors of power.

While the countries of West Asia, South Asia and South East Asia too have been impinging on the consciousness of governments, political analysts and economic players, the issues and events pertaining to the Central Asian States (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) do not normally grab headlines. (Of course, long ago in the 1960s, as an apocryphal story would have it, the Dravida Munnetra Kazakam (DMK) was prevailed upon to drop its demand for Dravidastan with the argument that it had a whole huge territory of Kazakhstan available to it!)

In short, insofar as awareness of their existence is concerned, they may as well be on the other side of the moon.

So long as the Central Asian States formed part of the Soviet Union, it is doubtful whether even their names, leave alone their demographic, social and economic profiles, were known to the outside world (see Box for thumbnail sketches of their profiles).

Naturally, the dealings of the international community were with the Communist rulers in Moscow chiefly dominated by the political heavyweight of Russia, the Republic with the largest territory from where most leading lights of the party and its power brokers hailed.

It is only of late that the Central Asian States have come to limelight, and their strategic location, their geopolitical significance, and their ability to make a big difference to the security and economies of the neighbouring countries certainly, but also of the rest of the world have aroused interest and become matters of realpolitik.

Win-win situation

Sparsely populated and still below par in economic development they may be, but the region covered by them is rich in resources — natural, mineral and fossil fuel — awaiting exploitation, sufficient to make up for their depletion elsewhere and reduce the dependence on the current conventional sources of supply. Enabling them to maximise their potential in this respect is a win-win situation. Their own needs being limited in view of their scant population, the surplus will be at the disposal, and that too at an enticingly low cost, of the countries going to their assistance with capital and technology. At the same time, the States too will enormously benefit by the prosperity that will flow out of the collaboration.

Understandably, China, abutting on those States, was the first to cotton on to the possibilities. The years following the demise of the USSR saw Russia painfully struggling to come out of the throes of the "shock treatment" administered by Dr Jeffrey Sachs and its ilk, with little time to spare for its erstwhile sister-Republics.

In any case, President Boris Yeltsin had little or no interest in them and left them to fend for themselves as best they might. China neatly stepped into the vacuum, with the "Shanghai Five" initiative which subsequently morphed into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) comprising China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, essentially to evolve and promote a partnership attending collectively to basic tasks of nation-building, safeguarding the security and stability of the newly independent States and exploring pathways to economic and military cooperation, besides facilitating intelligence exchanges, training of police and military forces, and coordinating military operations to contain terrorism. Russia too was taken as a member in consideration of its size and economic and military might, but, for aught it contributed, was no more than a sleeping partner.

China had other concerns as well. Its borders with the States were ill-defined, and the predominantly Muslim population of its westernmost province Xinjiang was proving to be a tinderbox, which could be lighted by militant Islamic movements which found a fertile breeding ground in Uzbekistan.

So, China wanted a listening post as well as a base for extending its influence. Desperate to keep pace with the vaulting demand for oil and gas, it saw in the Central Asian States a tempting target for its efforts to locate sources for future supplies.

Some observers even read into China's moves an urge for lebensraum for its burgeoning population; the wide open spaces of the Central Asian States were an irresistible lure for a covert policy of immigration of Chinese, swamping the local populations in due course.

China's bid to woo and win

Whatever that be, there was no doubt about China going all out to woo and win the allegiance of the States. It went about executing its strategy systematically and assiduously. It dusted up the old Panch Sheel — respect for each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference in the internal affairs of each other, fostering regional stability, peace and goodwill in bilateral and international relations, and mutually beneficial cooperation — to form the basis of agreements with each one of the States so as to serve as a reassurance of its good intentions.

It patched up the existing disputes over borders by making concessions, set up trade missions in every Central Asian country, provided generous funding for start-ups and development activities, especially new oil fields and hydro-electric projects in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and strengthened its economic links by establishing networks of new infrastructure.

For instance, it has readily come forward to implement a 3,000 km pipeline initially connecting Kazakhstan with China's Xinjiang region, and eventually extending right up to the Caspian Sea.

It has undertaken to finance and construct a highway costing $1.5 billion from China to Central Asia and plough into all the five State investments worth $4 billion.

Thumbnail sketches of Central Asian States

Kazakastan: Equal to the whole of Europe in size, with a population of only 1.4 million. High child, maternity mortality rates, with 28 per cent living below subsistence minimum level and 20 per cent unemployed. Suffering from dilapidated infrastructure, high unemployment, soaring inflation, drug addiction and HIV/AIDS. Victim of fallout of Russian nuclear tests and dumping of toxic waste However, has vast, unexplored, unexploited mineral resources and energy reserves.

Kyrgystan: Multi-ethnic (Kyrgyz, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Russians, Ukrainians and Germans, with a sprinkling of Chinese Muslims) population of five million of which 62 per cent live below poverty line, 23 per cent in extreme poverty. Economy characterised by low productivity, high inflation, high unemployment, inequitable income distribution.

Tajikistan: Population of six million with Tajiks, Uzbeks and Russians of whom 54 per cent are unemployed and 80 per cent below poverty line. Only seven per cent arable land. Poorest of the five states, yet to recover from the ravages of five-year long civil war. Plagued by food shortages, contagious diseases and lack of clean water. Prone to recurrent natural disasters.

Turkmenistan: Population five million, more than 70 per cent being ethnic Turkmen. Fifty per cent below poverty line. Fifth largest gas reserve in the world.

Uzbekistan: Population of 25 million, with border touching all the other four States. Noted for production of `white gold' (cotton) and grain, with undeveloped mineral and petroleum reserves.

(To be concluded)

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