The Hindu Business Line : President's rule in Bihar: Is it really the end of the Lalu chapter?

Mr Lalu Prasad's body language and calmness and his refusal to take the battle of Bihar to its roads, indicate that he has perhaps been offered some sop by the Congress High Command. What this could be will only be revealed in due course.

WITH President's rule imposed in Bihar, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance Government (UPA) at the Centre has begun a damage-control exercise, but not before its credibility and people's expectation that it would play by the rule-book have been severely eroded.

With the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief, Mr Ram Vilas Paswan, still firm in his resolve to support neither the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) nor the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), there was clearly a deadlock and no way a government could have been formed in Bihar without political hara-kiri. With the UPA Government, particularly the Congress(I) High command, having taken so much flak on the atrocious decision of the Jharkhand Governor, Syed Sibtey Razi, to invite the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) chief, Mr Shibu Soren, to form the government after the NDA had paraded before him the 41MLAs, while staking its claim, clearly, the Centre did not wish one more messy situation in Bihar.

The first thought that came to mind after Bihar was brought under President's rule was: What kind of a residence will Lalu Prasad and wife Rabri Devi find now. Not that there is any shortage of houses in Patna for the couple and their children to stay in. But what about the 200 cows and two horses that Mr Lalu Prasad had shown off so proudly to this correspondent at No 1 Anne Marg in Patna hardly a year ago? Surely, shifting residence along with such inmates will be a difficult task.

But the fact remains that after 15 long years Bihar has a respite from Lalu Prasad and his brand of governance. Or is it? For, Mrs Rabri Devi was getting ready to stake her claim to form the Government in Bihar. Till now, Mr Lalu Prasad has gone through the motions of recording his objections against President's rule; he even boycotted the Cabinet meeting that cleared the imposition of President's rule in the State and pulled out colourful punches from his armour to flay his bete noir, Mr Paswan. But at the lengthy session with the media after the announcement, his body language said something else.

Normally one would have expected Mr Lalu Prasad to be enraged at an adverse decision made by a coalition government in which he is a key element, throw a tantrum and even create an atmosphere of fear on Bihar's streets. But at a tete-a-tete with the media, one saw an absolutely relaxed Lalu Prasad fielding all kinds of questions without any irritation and playing the role of a media entertainer with aplomb.

The RJD chief, evoking the image of a pendulum, answered questions on Mr Paswan . He even asked a hanger-on to bring a clock to demonstrate to mediapersons how a pendulum swings from one extreme to the other. So was he angry at the Congress(I) chief, Ms Sonia Gandhi, for the end of his five-year rule?"Why should I be angry with her?" responded Mr Lalu Prasad, adding that he had met Ms Sonia Gandhi and "explained to her the role played by certain Congressmen" to bring Bihar to such a state of affairs.

So would he rock the UPA Government?"And help the BJP?" asked the RJD chief, adding that he was not a political novice to take such a step. But he reserved his ammunition for Mr Paswan; the man who had become "Ram Vilasji" in Mr Lalu Prasad's vocabulary hardly a couple of days ago — as the RJD chief had hoped against hope that Mr Paswan would change his mind in favour of an RJD-led coalition — had now become a `pendulum'. Biharis would not have forgotten that during the election campaign, Mr Lalu Prasad had said worse things about Mr Paswan, evoking imagery from the Railways.

While it is tragic that our political debate has stooped to such low levels and leaders who once refrained from personal attacks against political rivals are now resorting to crude language and innuendos, it is too early for the ordinary Bihar resident to go out in the streets and celebrate. Mr Lalu Prasad's body language and calmness and his refusal to take the battle of Bihar onto its roads, indicates that he has perhaps been offered some sop by the Congress High Command. What this could be will only be revealed in due course.

Meanwhile, on the imposition of President's rule and what it would mean for Bihar, Dr Prabhat P. Ghosh, Director of the Patna-based Asian Development Research Institute, told Business Line: "If it is done as a short process, it will be good for Bihar in the sense that it will allow the political process to stabilise. But there is fear in some quarters here that the process will be prolonged because the Congress(I) will be playing the leading role in running the administration."

Dr Ghosh does not agree that being an important constituent of the UPA, Mr Lalu Prasad will call the shots during President's rule and, hence, he is so relaxed. "No, I don't think Congress(I) will allow Mr Lalu Prasad to call the shots, because the Congress(I) wants to use this opportunity to create some political space in Bihar... at the moment, it has no political space at all."On Mr Lalu Prasad being surprisingly calm even after losing the reins of power after 15 years, Dr Ghosh says that even today "Lalu is the most important factor in Bihar, and he knows it. With everyone against him, he single-handedly managed to win 75 seats, which is no small matter. Even though his opponents make it appear as though he is in a hopeless situation, in reality, this is not so. Politically, even now, he is the most important player in the State. And, herein, lies a crucial difference between Mr Lalu and the Congress(I); Lalu might be out of power, but he is not out of the political area. But the Congress(I) is outside the political arena in Bihar and this is what is troubling the party leadership."

The NDA is in a piquant situation; it is happy that, finally, the RJD rule over Bihar has ended, but it is displeased that during the President's rule, the State will be administered by officers appointed by the UPA Government as advisors to the Governor. The Central rule over Bihar means UPA rule, and that is hardly a comforting thought for the BJP and its allies.

Meanwhile, its battle in Jharkhand has not gone anywhere; despite being summoned by the President, the Jharkhand Governor has done little to repair the damage done to democratic norms by his questionable action of inviting Mr Soren to form the Government. Advancing the date of March 21 originally given to the JMM chief to prove his majority in the House by a mere six days is hardly an indicator that he has made amends.

Till the Jharkhand issue hangs fire, the BJP will continue to disrupt Parliamentary proceedings and the Finance Bill will remain at the mercy of politics. But there is no doubt that while cracks have appeared in the UPA, a beleaguered BJP has got right back on the centre-stage.

On Tuesday, the BJP renewed its appeal to Mr Pawan to leave the UPA and come forward to form an "anti-RJD government" in Bihar, along with the NDA. According to its General Secretary, Mr Arun Jaitley, "Paswanji should stop creating this arithmetic of impossibility" and opt for the arithmetic of the possible. Spelling out this arithmetic (BJP+JD-U+LJP), he said there was no third option. So the LJP chief should come out of the UPA to pave way for an anti-RJD government in Bihar. If the BJP manages to persuade Mr Paswan, or rather his own MLAs are unable to resist the trappings of power, such an eventuality might just happen. That would be a big victory for the BJP indeed and a lesson for the Congress(I) for ditching its most faithful ally on the eve of the Assembly polls.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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