The Hindu Business Line : GDP slows to 6.2% in Q3 on lower farm output

THE Indian economy has registered a GDP growth of 6.2 per cent for the third quarter of 2004-05, a considerable slackening over the 11 per cent growth during the same period in the previous fiscal.

The slowdown comes on the back of a dip in agricultural output that showed a negative growth of 1.1 per cent during October-December 2004, against a 18.2-per cent growth in the third quarter of the previous year.

The GDP growth during the second quarter of 2004-05 was 6.6 per cent while in the first quarter the economy had grown by 7.4 per cent.

Growth during the third quarter of 2004-05 was led by a robust 10.5 per cent rise in trade, hotel, transport and communication activity (though lower than 13.6 per cent in the same quarter in the previous year), while manufacturing recorded growth of 10.4 per cent (7 per cent).

Financing, insurance real estate and business grew by 8.1 per cent (7.3 per cent), while the construction sector registered a growth of 8 per cent (5.9 per cent).

Community, social and personal services grew by 5.8 per cent(5.2 per cent), while mining and quarrying recorded a growth of 4.8 per cent (5.8 per cent) and electricity, gas and water supply grew by 4.4 per cent (3 per cent).

According to figures released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) here on Thursday, the growth during the first nine months of 2004-05 was 6.7 per cent, against 8.6 per cent in the same period in the previous year.

During the nine months period, trade, hotel, transport and water supply recorded the highest growth of 11 per cent, against 10.8 in the same period in the previous fiscal, while agriculture registered the lowest increase of 0.3 per cent (9.3 per cent).

Manufacturing grew 9.2 per cent (6.7 per cent) during April-December 2004, while financing, insurance, real estate remained flat at 7 per cent. Electricity, gas and water supply rose 6.6 per cent (2.4 per cent) and community, social and personal services showed a 6.4 per cent growth (9.7 per cent).

The construction sector recorded a growth of 5.6 per cent (7 per cent), while mining and quarrying grew by 5.2 per cent (4.9 per cent).

GDP at factor cost for the nine-month ending December 2004 was Rs 11,13,956 crore, compared to Rs 10,43,764 crore during the previous year. For the third quarter, GDP at factor cost was Rs 4,11,907 crore, against Rs 3,87,910 crore in the same period in the previous fiscal.

According to an official release, information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) shows that production of rice, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds has decreased in the third quarter by 7.5 per cent, 19.1 per cent, 11.2 per cent and 12.5 per cent respectively during the kharif season of 2004-05. Production of cotton is, however, expected to rise by 15.9 per cent, while that of sugarcane is likely to decline by 1.1 per cent during 2004-05 over the previous year.

According to the latest estimates on Index of Industrial Production, the indices of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 4.9 per cent, 9.1 per cent and 6.4 per cent during April-December 2004-05 compared with 4.3 per cent, 7.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively in the corresponding period of the last fiscal. The key indicators of construction sector - cement and finished steel registered growth of 6.8 per cent and 3.8 per cent respectively during April-December, against 5.6 per cent and 11.8 per cent respectively.

In the services sector, the performance indicators of Railways - net tonne km and passenger km - have shown growth rates of 8.2 per cent and 6.9 per cent during the first nine months of this fiscal.

For other key indicators such as production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by civil aviation and passengers handled by civil aviation have shown growth rates of 30.4 per cent, 11.1 per cent, 18.3 per cent and 21.8 per cent during April-December of 2004-05 over the corresponding period of 2003-04.

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