The Hindu Business Line : Global wheat market seen in static phase

WORLD wheat market is likely to be in a state of balance next year with both production and consumption expected to decline slightly from the record levels of the current year, but there will be no significant change in global stocks.

Global wheat production may fall by 3 million tonnes to 620 mt in 2005. While a larger planted area in China and CIS may be neutralised by decline in the US and some other countries, yield may not match the exceptionally high level of 2.9 tonnes a hectare, the London-based International Grains Council (IGC) said in its first assessment of prospects for wheat in 2005-06.

World wheat consumption - both food and feed - too is forecast to be lower than the record 610 mt of the current year. Food use in China and India may decline slightly, but rise in other parts of Asia. Use as feed may drop in European Union and North America.

World wheat trade is expected to bounce up by 5 mt to 108 mt with China's purchases projected at close to 7 mt With global output and consumption remaining largely equal, the market may remain largely steady.

IGC's tentative forecast of world maize (corn) production next year is 660 mt, down from the record high 709 mt of the current year. In the US about two million acres are likely to shift from soyabean to corn, according to observers.

Official US planting intentions data suggest an area increase of one per cent which, on trend yields, would result in a harvest of 270 mt, well below previous year's 300 mt, but still the second largest ever, IGC pointed out.

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