The Hindu Business Line : New push for closer India-US relations

THE timing and substance of the US announcement clearing the decks for the sale of multi-role combat aircraft to both India and Pakistan, and the tempting offer to discuss with India the modalities of the licensed production of F-series of such aircraft and the transfer of civilian nuclear technology have predictably ruffled the feathers of various political parties and civil society.

They have long been accustomed to oppose anything like the flow of American military hardware into the sub-continent, especially Pakistan, and, therefore, it is only to be expected that they will go to town venting the fears of arms race, worsening of the security environment, flare-up of jihadi terrorism and Pakistani sabre-rattling.

The leading lights of the BJP, who used to pride themselves as the erstwhile architects of US-India strategic partnership, but were in a foul mood over the denial of US visa to the Gujarat Chief Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, cannot also be blamed for taking it out on the US by joining the camp of castigators.

Clean bowled

That those outside the charmed official circles should have been caught unawares by the sudden springing of the new version of statecraft through aircraft is understandable enough. But New Delhi too, going by the uncertain responses and mixed signals emanating from the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, and the Defence Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, looks as if it has been clean bowled by the US initiative.

Dr Singh's initial expression of "great disappointment" to the US President, Mr George Bush, when informed over phone of the proposed supply of F-16 to Pakistan, could only be described as relatively mild.

Mr Mukherjee, on March 27, actually hailed the proposal relating to India as a "positive development" worth being "actively considered keeping in view the requirements of the armed forces".

While he himself chose to remain silent about the prospect of Pakistan being free to buy as many planes of the F-series as it wanted, the comment from Defence Ministry sources did not take exception to it as signifying either an increase in Defence expenditure or a prelude to an arms race in the region.

The next day saw a distinct stiffening in the stands of both the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister. Dr Singh called the US action a "matter of concern" which would be taken up with the Bush Administration, while Mr Mukherjee went further and said that it would have "an adverse impact" on the composite dialogue between India and Pakistan and even "jeopardise" confidence-building measures.

It is conceivable that the zig-zagging of India's position within 24 hours was due to the American googly genuinely throwing it off balance, momentarily muting the traditional antagonisms and compulsive knee-jerk reflexes of realpolitik colouring the attitudes in the sub-continent.

Any suggestion of surprise, however, flies in the face of the statement of the US Secretary of State, Dr Condoleezza Rice, made in the course of an interview to the Washington Post, that, during her visit to India earlier, she had fully briefed Dr Manmohan Singh about the new framework in the offing.

The Defence Ministry too has been quoted as telling the media that "the offer did not come as a surprise to us. We had been talking on these lines with the Americans."

In the circumstances, the tergiversation at the highest political levels on the Indian side has only served to confuse public opinion, whereas the clear need was for sure-footed leadership to turn to India's advantage the opportunity afforded by the "positive development" heralded by the US proposals.

It must have been an instinctive recognition of this need that evoked the spontaneously receptive note from India immediately following the breaking of the news.

But, perhaps, past hang-ups in the Indian political and ruling establishments in respect of both the US and Pakistan closed in and brought on what historically has been the politically correct posture.

It is good that the US has stirred up fresh thinking by propounding for the first time a realistic and practical action plan that takes account of the geopolitical compulsions, the relative strengths and weaknesses of the nations, and the rich, future potential of this part of the world.

At the very least, it will impel the Governments concerned to break out of the habit of playing zero-sum games and harking back to old recriminations, and to engage in a collaborative partnership contributing to the stability and progress of the region.

It is in this constructive spirit that India should approach the comprehensive new strategic compact that the US has put together for the sub-continent.

It is true that it has a military dimension, but the ground realities make this unavoidable for the nonce. There can be no such arms race in the foreseeable future that would make a dent on the supremacy India enjoys over Pakistan in manpower and firepower as regards its security forces.

Where the Compact gives rise to reservation is in its assumption that Gen Pervez Musharraf is for ever, that all that Pakistan acquires and accumulates in terms of military equipment will not fall at some future date into the hands of jihadi fanatics holding the rest of the world to ransom and that the nuclear proliferation networks and exchanges that the likes of A. Q. Khan had set up have been dismantled.

These are, no doubt, points for further clarifications and negotiations, especially with a view to persuading the US to stand guarantor for a democratic Pakistan willing to abide by a code of civilised international behaviour.

But they should not deflect attention from a number of welcome goals and means envisaged by the Compact.

The powerful troika of India, Pakistan and the US can eventually reduce tensions and pave the way for durable peace and purposeful cooperation among themselves and with other countries of South and South-East Asia.

Rid of the syndrome of suspicions and rancour, it can mark a new dawn in international relations where the mind will be without fear and the clear stream of reason will not lose its way in the dreary desert sand of dead habit.

In that sense, the new strategic compact is well worth a sincere try.

New framework

Basis: Fundamental judgment that the future of the region as a whole, comprising India, the most populous democracy on earth and soon to pass China as the most populous country on earth, Pakistan, the second most populous Muslim country in the world and the only one with nuclear weapons, and Afghanistan, a fragile but emerging democracy, with China on one side, Iran and West Asia on the other, and a turbulent Central Asian region to the north is vital to the future of the US and critical both demographically and economically to the forging of a viable international order.

Goal in the region: To interconnect the strategies by pulling the different threads together to weave a political, economic and security fabric contributing to the long-term interests of the countries in this part of the world and their friendship with the US.

Goal in India: To do whatever it takes to help it become a major world power in the 21st century.

Means: Collaboration along three tracks: First, strategic, reviewing global issues as with a global power, regional security issues and defence requirements, high-tech co-operation, expanding the current High Technology Co-operation Group and manufacturing licenses, working towards US-India defence co-production, defence transformation with India, including transformative systems in areas such as command and control, early warning and missile defence, and prevention of WMD proliferation through Proliferation Security Initiative.

Second, energy-related, including civil, nuclear and nuclear safety issues.

Third, space-related issues (space launch vehicles, satellites, and so on) by establishing suitable working groups.

Goal in Pakistan: A fully democratic, economically promising, secure Pakistan, at peace with its neighbours, and rid of anti-Americanism and Islamic extremism. Taking all initiatives to hasten the process of stability and overall development and "make the difficult, long-term commitment to the future of Pakistan".

Means: Political, ensuring that Pakistan sticks to its commitment to hold elections in 2007, encouraging further thawing of India-Pakistan relations.

Economic, reinforcing the five-year $3 billion assistance programme by negotiations to conclude a bilateral investment treaty and special measures for "the most dangerously" impoverished areas.

On the security side, existing military assistance to be supplemented by moving forward on the sale of F-16s to Pakistan which has already been declared a non-NATO ally.

(Compiled from the statements, media meets and interviews of important US functionaries.)

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