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Wednesday, Apr 06, 2005

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Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

BEARS took control of Tuesday's trading. Their dominance reduced the bull count by a considerable margin.

The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bearish. Bull domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the downtrend counters, thereby resulting in a change in the sentiment reading. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment may be further strengthened.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The April contract opened with a bull gap of five points and went further by another six points. The bulls failed to capitalise on it, yielding to bear pressure. The April contract moved within a band of 28 points, registering an intra-day low of 2028.25. It closed seven points below the previous close.

Tuesday's market action resulted in terminating the uptrend in the April contract. The long trade exited with a loss of six points. The bearish trigger level for the April contract has been moved closer. Bear domination on Wednesday has the potential to initiate the downtrend in the April contract. The bullish trigger level is placed slightly far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list changed, with Cipla gaining entry with the exit of ONGC. The ranking of the list had few changes. Tata Steel moved to the top slot and State Bank moved to the fourth position. The exit level for the uptrend in ONGC is placed at 885.95.

Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to terminate the downtrend in Cipla and Oriental Bank. The lone uptrend counter, Bank of India, may be under threat.

Bears are likely to have opportunities in five counters. Buying opportunities may exist in two counters. Selling in Satyam is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading. The sell level for this counter is placed closer to the last traded value. A bear move on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Satyam.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Reliance moved to the first position and Satyam moved to the seventh position.

A bear move on Wednesday could threaten the uptrend in ONGC and Satyam. On the contrary, the downtrend in PNB and SAIL is likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. A lone buying opportunity may exist in Reliance. The selling in Reliance is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. The bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within Rs 3 from the last traded price. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in Reliance.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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