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Thursday, Apr 14, 2005

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Initial gains not held

K. Premkumar

BULLS gained partial control of Wednesday's trading activity. The day's market action resulted in initiating the uptrend in few counters in the tradable list. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bullish. Bear domination on Friday is likely to turn the sentiment reading to bearish. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: The April contract opened with a bull gap of four points and went further by another three points. Thereafter, bears made a comeback and wiped out their early losses. The April contract moved within a band of 26 points registering an intra-day low of 2006.10. It closed with a loss of around five points with respect to previous close.

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Initial bull move led to the initiation of the uptrend in the April contract. Bear domination on Friday has the potential to terminate the uptrend. Bearish trigger level for the April contract is placed slightly away from the current level.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had few changes. Tata Steel moved to the second position and Reliance to the sixth position.

Bear pressure on Friday is likely to terminate the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the downtrend in Cipla, CNX IT and Reliance are likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. For Friday, the best bet is likely to be the buying in Tata Motors. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bull move on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Motors.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a minor change. Infosys and ONGC interchanged their positions.

None of the counters in the list is in the downtrend. Bear move on Friday could be a threat to the uptrend in Infosys, Satyam and Tata Motors. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in as much as nine counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. The best for Friday's trading is likely to be the selling in SAIL. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to the current level. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in SAIL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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