The Hindu Business Line : Feel-good forecast

BECAUSE IT IS not often that the country's agricultural sector receives a double dose of positive news at once, the announcement, in tandem, of the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for various crops for the coming kharif season and the forecast of a `normal' South-West monsoon during June-September deserves to be recognised. While tremendous optimism on the growth front pervades the country's economic landscape, the last thing anyone wants is deficient precipitation with its concomitant impact not only on rural incomes but also on the economy as a whole. With crude oil continuing to be on the boil, commodity prices in general unrelenting from their high levels and inflation constantly holding out a threat, a normal monsoon will help cool the domestic price sentiment while creating a sense of `feel good'. The Minister for Science and Technology is sanguine that the "probability of the monsoon being near normal and above is very high (75 per cent)".

Having said that and without any reflection on the performance of India Meteorological Department (IMD) per se, the operational forecast that the 2005 South-West monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98 per cent of long period average should be taken with some circumspection, going by experience. Aberrant weather, contrary to forecast, in agriculturally important regions has often put paid to farm hopes. It would, therefore, be foolhardy to become complacent over farm prospects on the basis of current forecasts. Given the agrarian nature of the economy and the country's vastness with varied agro-climatic zones, it bears repetition that farm interests would be best served with forecasts of spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in addition to that offered for the season as a whole. From this viewpoint, the IMD's new initiatives deserve to be strengthened and its collaborative research programmes taken forward to meet farm needs. Funds or availability of competent professionals should not constrain the activities of the Met Office. A few weeks ahead of the onset of monsoon, it is time for the Centre and the State governments to gear up to ensure adequate availability of inputs of requisite quality — seeds, fertilisers and agrochemicals. The Finance Minister has been talking about a substantial expansion of farm credit; it is time to walk the talk. The State governments must put in place a `contingency plan' in the event of the unthinkable.

The announcement, weeks ahead of the planting season, of support prices for various kharif crops, augurs well for the farmer, who can now choose the crop he wants to grow. The support price increases, wherever applicable, are modest and unlikely to have any marked inflationary impact on the open market. So far, so good. But what is happening to the much-talked-about crop diversification? Despite normal monsoons in recent years, the output of oilseeds and pulses has been either stagnant or declining. In his Budget speech, the Finance Minister referred to the Agriculture Ministry preparing a roadmap for crop diversification. It would be one more season lost if at least the broad contours of the crop shift plan are not unveiled now.

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