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Wednesday, Apr 27, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

BEARS gained control of Tuesday's trading activity.

The day's market action resulted in triggering the downtrend in few tradable counters. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral.

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Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the sentiment reading is likely to turn bullish.

Nifty futures recommendation: The April month contract opened with a bull gap of five points. Bulls failed to capitalise on it as they yielded to bear pressure. The April contract moved within a band of 20 points registering an intra-day low of 1943.50. It closed with a loss of nine points with respect to previous close.

The long position in the April contract remains intact. The exit and bearish trigger levels for the April contract are now placed quite closer to the current level. Bear move on Wednesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in the April contract.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a few changes with Satyam moving to the top slot. Trading activity in IPCL was quite hectic on Tuesday with more than 11700 trades. The exit level for the long position in ICICI Bank is placed at 390.95.

For Wednesday, most of the counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in three counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. The best bet for Wednesday's trading is likely to be the selling in State Bank. This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and sell levels for this counter is placed closer to the last traded value. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to trigger these levels.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had some changes. Satyam moved to the top slot followed by Tata Steel and Infosys. The uptrend in ICICI Bank is likely to terminate at 399.95.

Bull move on Wednesday is likely to terminate the prevailing downtrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the uptrend in Maruti and Reliance are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Selling in Infosys is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within a rupee from the last traded price. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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