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Wednesday, May 04, 2005

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Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

TUESDAY'S trading activity witnessed range bound movement. Bulls managed to gain marginally from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bearish. Bull move on Wednesday has the potential to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in the value.

Nifty futures recommendation: The May month contract opened two points higher than the previous close and went further by another six points. Later on, bears took charge of the day's proceedings and wiped out their losses. The May contract moved within a band of 16 points registering an intra-day low of 1899.05. It closed with marginal loss of three points over Monday's close.

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The day's market action had no impact on the recommended level. The exit for the short position and the bullish trigger level for the May contract remains unchanged. Bull domination on Wednesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing downtrend in the May contract.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Arvind Mill moved to the fifth position followed by Infosys and Tata Motors.

Bear move on Wednesday could be a threat to the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the downtrend in Tata Motors is likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Selling in Infosys is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to the last traded value. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Infosys.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains undisturbed. Bulls were successful in triggering the uptrend in the recommended counter - Tata Steel. For Wednesday, most of the prevailing counters in the list are likely to be under threat.

Bears are likely to have opportunity in Infosys and Tata Steel. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in as much as eight counters. Selling in Infosys is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading. This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and sell level for this counter is placed quite closer to the current level. Bear move on Wednesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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