The Hindu Business Line : Afghanistan

There is peace but quite uneasy, and maintained largely by the international community working in Afghanistan, the International Security Allied Forces and the US military forces. The task of re-building the country has begun, but the progress is slow. Everyone, especially the World Bank and friendly neighbours like India, is doing a bit, but much depends on the peace holding, says Rasheeda Bhagat.

On the Kabul-Bamiyan `road'... Afghanistan has a long way to go before it gets the battered infrastructure on its feet - Rasheeda Bhagat.

THE US-led invasion of Afghanistan officially ended in November 2001, with the ouster of the Taliban regime from Kabul. Then the US-backed Mr Hamid Karzai was installed President following the October 2004 Presidential elections in which over eight million Afghans voted. Mr Karzai got 55.4 per cent of the vote, but there were allegations of electoral irregularities. Parliamentary elections are slated for September.

In Afghanistan for a nine-day visit, this correspondent found fears of safety and caution on movement in Kabul's streets after sundown somewhat exaggerated. But, then, as everyone there put it, the northern and north-western areas are safer compared to the south and the east of the country. But how deceptive the feeling of security and peace could be was seen from a startling tale of an attempted kidnap of three Westerners working for a UN organisation, by a group of armed amateur kidnappers. Apparently the three had, after dinner at a popular French restaurant in the heart of Kabul, gone "around the corner" perhaps for a smoke, when they were confronted by a couple of gunmen who tried to kidnap them.

According to a Western diplomat, these were obviously not professionals but amateurs who try to kidnap whoever they can lay their hands on and then deliver the catch to professionals who then determine the victims' identity, and then demand a ransom. While this incident drove home to us how fragile the security situation and peace is in Afghanistan, even in the supposedly safe Kabul, one was regaled to an interesting story by the World Bank's Country Manager in Afghanistan, Mr Jean Mazurelle. Soon after his arrival in Kabul nearly a year ago, he visited the Panjsheir Valley, a couple of hours drive from Kabul, to the tomb of Ahmad Shah Massoud, widely acknowledged as their national hero; hoardings proclaiming him thus and huge portraits of the Panjsheiri leader are all over the Kabul region.

"We drove there and found hundreds of Afghans seated on the big platform at the entrance to the mausoleum. They were listening to an impassioned speech by an Imam. My driver Azim Mirza, a Panjsheri himself, translated for me what the Imam was saying. He was complaining about the values westerners were bringing into the country. He was saying we cannot accept these people unveiling our wives, and similar stuff."

Mr Jean Mazurelle, World Bank's Country Manager in Afghanistan.

At the end of the speech, apparently a group of men approached Mr Mazurelle; "I wouldn't say they were very aggressive but they were asking `why even when so much international aid was coming into Afghanistan we did not have anything. Where is all the money going? Are you people going to help us or not... ' With the time passing, the crowd grew in size, they were still not aggressive but I could see more and more people joining the group.

"By this time the driver was a bit frightened and he ran to the car because I was reading a biography of Massoud and on the cover of the book was a picture of the leader. He waved the book to the crowd and said: `You know this guy is a friend and admirer of Massoud; he is reading a biography of Massoud.'

"That eased the tension, the crowd slowly melted away and imagine, my life was saved by a Panjsheiri driver," says the French executive with a hearty laugh.

But the charged atmosphere and the state of the country on any front you name — roads and drainage, telephone services, health, education and, above all, the near absence of any employment opportunities — are hardly a laughing matter. And nobody knows this better than the World Bank executive himself.

Discussing the future of Afghanistan in an interview to Business Line, he said the country was battered so badly by nearly 25 years of conflict and violence that it would take a long time for the international community to improve the standard indicators of development, such as health-care and education, provision of safe drinking water and sanitation services, and some kind of minimal employment opportunities to enable a man to meet the basic needs of his family. "Of course it is going to take a much longer time to get even minimum results than the people of Afghanistan expect. But the good news is that the international community cannot afford to fail in Afghanistan. I don't think that the international community is going to give up Afghanistan, whatever the difficulties."

But Mr Mazurelle cautions that time is of the essence. If the minimum expectations of the people are not met quickly, there is the danger of the country relapsing into violence and feuds. In a society that is deeply divided into factions owning allegiance to different tribal or regional leaders, the penalty for inaction or slow action would be heavy. "The fragmentation of the society and the political landscape will again be vitiated because soon there will be a Parliament where the Parliamentarians will ask of the leadership: `Where is the money that is coming from the international community? You're not giving us the money for our provinces and keeping all of it for Kabul,' And we have to remember that even today in Afghanistan you have the Kalashnikovs, grenades and all kinds of weapons. And we could easily have something like what Europe saw long ago in terms of peasants' revolt'."

The saddest part of the story is that the ordinary Afghan is not asking for much. The biggest tragedy is that over two decades of violence and conflict have left the Afghan society virtually without a middle-class, which is the backbone of any society. While the conflict years gave an immense opportunity for the war lords, drug lords and the tribal chieftans to accumulate power and wealth, the educated middle-class simply fled the country, particularly during the Taliban era when they found their civil rights — not to mention gender rights — brutally violated. The highly educated went away to the US and Europe and others to neighbouring countries such as Pakistan and Iran. But the poor and the uneducated did not have this luxury; though, of course, a section did end up in the refugee camps of Pakistan and Iran.

Though the Taliban regime fell over three years ago, the bulk of that middle-class has not yet returned for it is unsure that its country will not relapse into chaos and anarchy.

The international community working in Afghanistan, the ISAF (International Security Allied Forces or NATO) and the US military forces — there are about 12000 US military personnel in Afghanistan on whom the US spends $14 billion annually; but they keep a low profile at least in Kabul — are for the moment ensuring some kind of peace and security, but the situation is still fluid and the peace can hardly be called durable.

Mr Mazurelle adds that while some people think that the international aid of $4 billion which has come into Afghanistan is a lot of money, "I don't think it is too much considering that for the redevelopment of East Germany 78 billion euros was spent. And they already had the capacity and the infrastructure... compared to Afghanistan, they had everything."

The World Bank has till now committed $780 million and over 65 per cent of this is grant and the rest is a 40-year soft loan at 0.75 per cent with a grace period of 10 years.

Next year more money will be available for allocation to Afghanistan under the LICUS, or Low Income Country Under Stress, scheme.

Over the next 5-10 years, Mr Mazurelle sees the Bank allocating about $300 million a year to Afghanistan, "so the portfolio is going to increase by $300 million a year which is quite important for a country with a population of 22 million."

Asked if the World Bank is in Afghanistan for the long term, Mr Mazurelle says, "Of course, we'll be here for 30, 40 or 50 years... as long as it takes. I told you, the international community cannot afford to fail Afghanistan."

He is all praise for Indian intervention in Afghanistan and the role it is playing in rebuilding the country's education and health services, training the Afghan administrative staff and participating in power, telecom and road projects.

"The Bank is very happy to see that a country like India which has a good experience in development, and scarce resources, is helping Afghanistan. And the Afghans are very grateful because for them a dollar from India is like 1,000 or even 10,000 dollars coming from the US.

"Secondly, we strongly believe that in terms of building the capacity of Afghanistan, India is much better placed than any other country because you have vocational training, you have the sophisticated accountants and a public administration which is very efficient in dealing with the challenges of a billion-plus population.

"You have an administration that is standing on its feet; and every time teams come from India to help the Afghan administration and organise things, it is always a success. This is because it is less expensive than big accounting firms and much more adaptive to this country and its needs."

Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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