The Hindu Business Line : CSIR body sees monsoon slackening in July

A COUNCIL of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) body sees significant deficit in rainfall during July, though monsoon is expected to set in on time and good rainfall is projected during June.

The CSIR Centre for Mathematic Modelling and Computer Simulation (C-MMACS), in its latest projection for this year's rainfall, expects monsoon to slacken during the first three weeks of July.

It also projects the eastern and central parts of the country to receive deficient rainfall in July. This is in contrast to projections for June, where excess rainfall has been projected with floods in the eastern parts.

C-MMACS has been doing experimental forecasts since 1996. Since 2003 it has initiated experiments based on a dynamic Atmospheric General Circulation Model, which has proved to be fruitful.

C-MMACS forecasts in 2003 and 2004 have turned out to be as projected.

The centre said in July, the eastern parts were expected to get a 21 per cent deficient rainfall, while in the central parts the deficiency could be 12 per cent. For the nation as a whole, July rainfall is expected to be 12 per cent lower than normal with the deficiency being higher in the first week at 19 per cent.

North India is expected to receive a 40 per cent deficient rainfall in the first week of July, while the eastern parts are expected to get 27 per cent lower rainfall in the first half of the month.

July forms a crucial period for agriculturists in the country as follow-up rains are necessary for progress of the crop.

Last year, kharif production was affected to some extent as follow-up rain was delayed in July with oilseeds and grains being affected.

C-MMACS, however, warns that the projections have been made only with the objective of evaluating its methodology. The centre is likely to come up with an update towards the month-end.

Meanwhile, projections by global agencies reveal that conditions for El Nino, the phenomenon wherein the ocean temperature rises leading to drought, are neutral, at least, until August.

But uncertainty prevails over the situation towards the year-end.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, there is 30-50 per cent risk of El Nino setting in.

This risk is double than normal during this period of the year and the situation could develop towards September.

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