The Hindu Business Line : Hope and frustration in Afghanistan — Mr Jean Mazurelle, World Bank's country manager in Afghanistan

The World Bank's country manager in Afghanistan, Mr Jean Mazurelle, is both hopeful and worried about the pace of reconstruction and development work in the country. In an interview to Business Line at the Bank's heavily guarded local headquarters in Kabul, he explained why the international community could not fail in Afghanistan.

Excerpts from the interview:

How do you assess the present situation in Afghanistan?

State building lies at the heart of any reconstruction effort; I've been here for one year and feel that the Afghan Government and the international community need to speed up this critical function to improve the absorption capacity of the State and provide services. We also have to assure the Afghan people that the State we are trying to build and the democracy that we're trying to create will do more for them than just ensure their survival.

For long development was concentrated only in Kabul and some other cities. To put in place an administration system for the provinces and the districts will not only cost a lot of money but also require the right people for the right job. That involves a lot of planning. What is surprising is that despite 25 years of turmoil and war, the administration was quite resilient, but the people in the provinces are getting older and will disappear soon. So the Afghan government will need to train, very soon, new people because you need this demographic push; 50 per cent of the population here is under 18 and there are difficulties in training the young people who stayed in the country.

For lack of education...

All the Afghans working in this office are educated because they left the country; they went to Pakistan, India or Iran. In Kabul you can barely find an educated and qualified Afghan who has been educated here. It is worse in the provinces. We do get educated people, but there is so much competition among international agencies to get them that we're perverting the labour market by offering high salaries. After that nobody wants to work for NGOs or other international organisations!

I'm told that teachers in Kabul barely get paid $50 a month?

The average salary here is $56. How can you survive on this kind of salary when you have a family? So there are immense challenges ahead.

How daunting are things on the economic front?

Fiscal sustainability is a big issue because this country does not have resources; the domestic revenue collected last year was $280 million; and the total operating budget is $700 million. As a minister put it two days ago, this budget is not even for a performing administration. That will cost much more. But who is going to pay for it?

Could you elaborate on that?

This $700 million does not include expenditure for the police or the national army. The Afghan National Army has 80,000 troops and it costs $600 million a year, a sum that is paid by the Americans. And the police force costs $200 million a year.

How many American troops are here? They are barely visible in Kabul...

The US military has about 12,000 troops. You know of course that the US is spending $14 billion a year on its military here.

What are they spending so much money on?

You cannot imagine the kinds of weapons and the sophisticated equipment they have. But yes, they are in the background. Everybody says: `Oh, money is pouring into the country', but this is not true. The $4 billion that has come in is not that much when you consider that to redevelop East Germany it cost 78 billion euro. When you compare the $14 billion for the US army and $5-6 billion a year for ISAF (International Security Allied Forces or NATO), that is $19-20 billion for the military expenditure, with $4 billion for reconstruction of Afghanistan, it is nothing.

But we have to realise that the stability of this country will not come from having thousands of foreign soldiers on the territory. Safety, security and stability will come from development, not from sophisticated B-52s (bombers). This is an issue that the international community will have to face sooner than later.

How does it feel to be here at this moment? Are you sad or hopeful about the future?

I have mixed feelings. I cannot understand why the international community did not take care of this country much earlier on or why we waited till the situation came to the point of the Taliban and the Soviet occupation before that. I can understand the resentment of the Afghans that they had to wait till 9/11 before the international community took notice of Afghanistan. An Afghan told me that 9/11 was a lottery ticket for them and that they were not going to give away this lottery ticket.

We know from experience, he said, that without this lottery ticket we'd still have been in the same situation. And that was very sad. So I can understand the resentment of the Afghans against the entire world and why they want to be compensated. They feel they deserve international aid that is coming in... and it is their right because for 25 years no one gave a damn about what was happening here.

Does what you see here frustrate you?

Yes, there is a bit of frustration at the dire poverty. I've worked in the poorest and most difficult countries of Africa. Believe me, the lives of the people in those countries were much easier than those of the Afghan people. The social indicators are absolutely appalling here. I visited a provincial area where mothers had their children dying of diarrhoea, for want of safe drinking water... they were not dying of cancer or HIV or leukaemia. In the 20th century you shouldn't have such a high infant mortality rate... one out of 5 children dies before 5 years of age.

What are the major challenges faced by a development agency like yours?

I'm a bit tired of newspaper reports that say that money is pouring into the country. Even with the $4 billion, where do you start, what do you prioritise? You need money for roads, electricity, water, irrigation and these investments are awfully expensive. The balance between humanitarian expenditure and the need to rebuild the infrastructure is very difficult to maintain. The problem is that the decision-makers in this country were all away for quite a long time. They don't always realise that the country is in dire straits. They have been educated in the US, Germany and France and have forgotten the situation of the poor. The huge risk is that if the expectation of the people is not met, they will start to fight again because they will feel cheated.

Where is this money going? Already there is a debate in a section of the polity on where the money is going. `Are the NGOs taking away the money? The money is not being used to improve our lives, but to buy land cruisers for foreigners and on Afghans who have returned from the US or Europe. They lead a good life, whereas we have been struggling under the war, the Soviets and the Taliban. And what is being done with this money for us?' Nothing, it is being kept for them.

If this stance strengthens, it could be a huge risk for the stability of this country. So we are on a fine thin line... the government has to ensure that progress is visible and that it is for the poorest. At the same time, you need to get electricity and potable water in Kabul. There is no other option; Kabul is the capital of the country and you have to get private investment here to rebuild the country. Private investment is absolutely essential; even with the fullest commitment the international community will not be able to rebuild Afghanistan. You need private investment for that.

What are the business opportunities here?

Medium-size enterprises have to come in. Big international companies will come into the mining sector but not for a while because of the shortcomings and bottlenecks. With the return of the refugees and the resulting land disputes, it has become very difficult to get land with clear titles in most part of the country. For 20 years, there has been no regulation on land.

Also, there is lack of finance; the upcoming banks are ready to collect money, even money from drugs, but are not ready to lend to the local people. The drug economy, which forms a chunk of the formal economy, has led to semi-criminal activity, thus contaminating the social fabric. The line between the criminal economy and the legal economy is blurred. This is one of the major threats to Afghanistan.

How much money has the World Bank committed to Afghanistan?

So far we've committed $780 million, which we administer through the Afghan Reconstruction Trust Fund, a fund to which 24 countries contribute.

Including India...

Oh yes. We provide money for education, health, agriculture, irrigation, community development, etc. But what we are most proud of is what we call the AAA activity or work in the economic sector; the studies and analysis that the Bank provides to the government to help it to make decisions. In a country where for 25 years there has been no economic report of any kind, we have brought out a flagship report on the mining, public education, financial, agriculture, power generation and other sectors, including the drug economy, which is of tremendous importance; it's a country economy report that was published last month. This kind of knowledge building is very important because it provides strategic thinking for private investment, humanitarian aid, etc.

What about the gender front?

(Sighs) We're coming out with a report on the situation of women... but I think it's going to take a lot of time, particularly because we could be perceived as Westerners imposing Western values. We have to be very careful not to create any backlash — a possibility in a country like this.

This is what happened with the Soviets, so it is better to mainstream gender activities and projects with the rest of the development activities rather than advocate big reforms that won't be accepted by the people. Consensus building is important A woman was stoned to death a few days ago; that gives us an idea of the gender situation.

You asked about India. The Bank is very glad that India is playing a very meaningful role in Afghanistan with its training expertise and cost effectiveness. I'm not a diplomat but I feel that India's move to advocate regional co-operation, along with Pakistan, is a good example of a win-win strategy. I think the Indian Government is sincerely looking for stability in the region; it seems to have said: `Enough is enough. We cannot continue to have the kind of problems we've had with Pakistan.'

India is making big investments in infrastructure — roads, electricity and of course telecom where you now have the same level of expertise as in the West. But labour from India is much cheaper and the quality of project implementation is as good as that from Europe or the US.

And culturally, particularly on the gender front, Indians will be much better accepted here, right?

Very much so. I have a lot of colleagues from the Bank in Delhi. In their interaction with the Afghans, they are respectful of the economic environment, but at the same time they're able to convince the Afghans that things can be changed in relation to gender issues. My Indian female colleagues are very good at dealing with the Afghans.

In the future we'd like to see the Afghans looking at India's development path rather than that of Iran or Pakistan. The Indian society is a tolerant society, unlike the countries surrounding Afghanistan.

And Indian doctors and health services are very popular here. We are quite liberal in sending our staff members, such as drivers, abroad for medical treatment if they have a problem; we give them the choice of three countries; India, Pakistan or Iran. And all of them want to go to India.

(Feedback may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)

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