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Wednesday, May 18, 2005

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Bull run arrested

K. Premkumar

BEARS gained control of Tuesday's trading activity. However, they could not gain much from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Further bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: The near month May contract opened with a bull gap of nine points but could not make any further gains. Bears made an instant recovery and took charge of the day's proceedings. The May contract moved within a band of 47 points registering a low of 1965.10. It closed lower with a loss of 35 points with respect to previous close.

Bears were successful to the extent of terminating the uptrend in the May contract. The long trade exited with a profit of ten points. Bearish trigger level for the May contract is placed very close to the current level. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in the May contract.

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Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had few changes. Infosys moved to the fourth position followed by Satyam and Tata Motors.

Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. The prevailing downtrend counters in the list are likely to be safe. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in seven counters. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Canara Bank. The best bet for Wednesday's trading is likely to be the selling in Canara Bank. This counter is in the sideways mode. Sell level for this counter is placed quite closer to the last traded value. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Canara Bank.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable counters underwent a change. ONGC regained entry with the exit of SAIL. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes. The downtrend in SAIL is likely to terminate at 53.25.

Except for the downtrend in Tata Steel, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in as much as eight counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in two counters. Selling in ONGC is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within two rupees from the last traded price. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in ONGC.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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