The Hindu Business Line : Southwest monsoon to be late by a week

THE southwest monsoon will be delayed by a week, but the overall rainfall is expected to be `near normal', according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The new forecast model suggests that the onset will take place on June 7 with a margin of error of three days on either side, Dr M. Rajeevan, Director-Forecasting, IMD, told Business Line.

The seasonal weather system is normally known to make a landfall over South Kerala on June 1. But this date has a standard deviation of about seven days. During the last 50 years, the earliest onset was on May 14 in 1960 and the most delayed on June 18 in 1972.

There is no one-to-one correspondence between the onset date and the subsequent performance of monsoon during the season (June to September) over the country as a whole. In spite of the expected delay in the onset, the seasonal rainfall is expected to be `near normal' as stated in the first forecast by the IMD issued on April 20.

This long-range forecast had assessed the rainfall as 98 per cent of the long period average with a model error of plus or minus five per cent.

As for the possibility of an El Nino phenomenon taking shape in the Equatorial Pacific with adverse implications for monsoon, the IMD said from the first week of July last year, weak El Nino conditions had prevailed in the areas. A cooling trend has been observed over this region from December, suggesting a transition to `ENSO-Neutral' (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) conditions.

However, during April this year, sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific have risen in tandem with the arrival of an oceanic wave. The effects of this present warming along the west coast of South America are expected to be brief, Dr Rajeevan said.

A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts have also indicated that ENSO-Neutral conditions will prevail during the northern summer (June-August) this year.

It may be recalled that unexpected warming of the Equatorial Pacific half way into the monsoon last year had led to a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent over the country.

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Layoffs loom large for Surat diamond workers

Southwest monsoon to be late by a week — Rainfall may be `near normal'

Cabinet to consider mid-term appraisal of 10th Plan today

Protests growing against telecom towers

Simpler delisting norms for small cos in 6 months

Review of quarterly reporting ruled out

`No plans to ban participatory notes'