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Tuesday, May 31, 2005

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Bear domination

K. Premkumar

BEARS gained control of Monday's trading activity.

The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bearish.

Bull domination on Tuesday has the potential to turn the sentiment reading to bullish. Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

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Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hour of Monday's trading, the near month June contract gained seven points. Later on, bears took charge of the day's proceedings and wiped out their early losses.

The June contract moved within a band of 23 points registering an intra-day low of 2,032.60. It closed with a loss of five points with respect to Friday's close.

The long position in the June contract remains intact. However, further bear move on Tuesday is likely to terminate the prevailing uptrend in the June contract. Bearish trigger level for the June contract is placed quite far away and is unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. TCS, State Bank of India and Tata Steel were the top three traded counters in this segment.

Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to terminate most of the prevailing downtrend counters in the list.

On the other hand, the uptrend in Bank of Baroda, Infosys and Tata Steel are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Bank of Baroda, Maruti and Tata Steel.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Maruti and Reliance. The best among the above is likely to be the selling in Maruti. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to the current level. Bear move on Tuesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Maruti.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 active counters list. The ranking of the list too remains undisturbed.

Bears were successful in triggering the downtrend in the recommended counter - Reliance. The downtrend in PNB is likely to terminate at 388.55.

Except for the downtrend in Satyam, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in four counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters.

Buying in Maruti is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode.

Buy level for this counter is placed within a rupee from the last traded price. Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely initiate the uptrend in Maruti.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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