The Hindu Business Line : Global pepper supply likely to fall

IF some reports emanating from overseas market sources are to be believed, the world pepper demand is likely to outweigh supply this year as the exportable surplus from most countries will be less than last year.

As against a projected demand of 2,16,000 tonnes in 2005, the quantity available for export from all the producing countries would be 1,71,900 tonnes, says a market review for 2005 by the Brazilian Pepper Trade Board.

According to the report, total world consumption of pepper in 2005 is estimated at 3,41,500 tonnes, including 1,23,500 tonnes by the producing countries.

Production in Vietnam, top producer of pepper in the world, is estimated to be around 86,000 tonnes, of which 79,000 tonnes would be available for export, the report says.

The reasons attributed to the decline in the supply position are a potential drop in Vietnam production by 20 per cent in 2005, besides production loss in other countries.

Vietnam had a better output in 2004 and hence the crop this year, as a natural phenomenon, should have to be less, it claimed.

Added to this the weather conditions were not favourable, while the growers have been neglecting the plants due to low prices and high inputs cost leading to a drop in yield.

Production in Indonesia is also likely to drop as many growers have shifted to other more remunerative cash crops because of the continuous decline in pepper prices.

In many areas, the farmers have replaced pepper with oil palm, cocoa and rubber.

In Brazil, most of the pepper vines are senile/exhausted, needing replanting/replenishment, which is said to be not taking place because of the poor return from the sales of the produce.

Meanwhile, in Malaysia, the high cost of production due to increased input costs reported to have forced the farmers to shift to other crops.

Indian production is almost stable at around 70,000 tonnes, of which the domestic market absorbs around 60,000 tonnes, leaving not much for export.

However, according to a statistics compiled by the Upasi, the world production this year would be 2,99,275 tonnes against 2,94,159 tonnes in 2004. The global export was 2,25,300 tonnes in 2004.

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