The Hindu Business Line : CSIR body projects 34 pc deficit rainfall in June

THE Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computing (CMMACS) has revised its earlier projections and predicted a 34 per cent deficit in rainfall this month.

In its earlier forecast, CMMACS had projected a 22 per cent excess rainfall in June. This now stands revised in what the affiliate of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has described as a "significant change" in forecast made earlier.

The projections are seen crucial since sowing for the kharif season will be in full swing in June. Already, sowing of cotton has begun in North India.

It has, however, maintained the 12 per cent deficit for July forecast and has even gone on to project 13 per cent excess rainfall in August in the latest update issued on Thursday.

Region-wise projections for August were (in percentage figures): North (+1); West (+30); East (+15); South (+22); Northeast (+3); central (+28); South Central (+10); Andamans (no change) and Lakshadweep (+17).

In the first forecast, CMMACS had said all four weeks of June were likely to see above normal rainfall for the country as a whole. Also, large parts of the North-East and also parts of East could witness flood conditions due to excessive precipitation.

This prediction saw 12 per cent deficit in July rainfall for the country as a whole with significant deficits in the first three weeks. Eastern and Central India would experience significantly deficit rainfall through most part of the second but crucial monsoon month. These projections have more or less been maintained.

As for onset, the CSIR body had given May 26 as the likely date. India Meteorological Department (IMD) may not have declared the onset even after a week hence, but CMMACS said the fine print lay in its `functional' approach to defining an onset.

It had characterised the onset as sustained daily rainfall amounting to no less than six mm over a large areas for more than three days together. This is followed by intermittent rain spells, characteristic of monsoon rainfall.

"We had forecast significant, persistent rains over coastal Kerala beginning May 26. Observationally, significant rains have since been recorded over Thiruvananthapuram as can be seen from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) figures," the CMMACS said.

Rainfall has been also recorded over other parts of the State, which is known as gateway for the southwest monsoon.

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page