The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon brings copious rains in Kerala

THE southwest monsoon has been active in Kerala on the second day since the onset, with heavy to very heavy rainfall in many parts of the State on Monday.

"We have received data on some very good rainfall in the State and the initial monsoon pulse is progressing well," Dr A.B. Mazumdar, Deputy Director-General, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, told Business Line.

These conditions will prevail for the next two days as well. Current conditions are favourable for the further advance of the system into the rest of the peninsula. The IMD has retained its near-normal outlook for this year's monsoon, Dr Mazumdar added.

The following centres recorded heavy to very heavy rainfall (in cm) during the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Monday: Konni - 20; Kodungallur - 12; Kunnamkulam and Perumbavur - 9; Mavelikara - 8; Theni and Kanjirappally - 7 each.

The system covered most of the State on Monday itself, and had even forayed into some parts of Tamil Nadu and South-West Karnataka. Its northern limit passed through Mangalore, Coimbatore, and Adiramapattinam.

A trough was located in the lower levels off the South Karnataka-Kerala coast, which should help sustain the pulse for the next two days.

Sunday's cyclonic circulation over the South-West Bay of Bengal persisted and lay between 2.1 km and 4.5 km above sea level with a southward tilt.

Hurried declaration: Meanwhile, a top source in the Central Government told Business Line that the IMD should have waited at least until Monday to officially declare the onset of the monsoon.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said that the department had announced the onset "one day too soon."

On projections of 34 per cent June rainfall deficit by the Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (C-MMACS), he agreed that it made for a worrisome scenario. But he was not sure if the forecast was based on concrete facts. "There is a possibility that June could prove deficient, but not this bad."

The source also agreed with the short-term rainfall forecast made by the Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), which saw bountiful rains for the peninsula in the first week of monsoon.

He added a caveat that monsoon prediction based on general circulation models continued to be an "elaborate gamble at best and a serious predicament at worst."

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