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Friday, Jun 10, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

THE market witnessed range-bound movement for the second successive trading day. However, bulls managed to gain from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish. Bear domination on Friday has the potential to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: The June month contract opened one point lower than the previous close and went further down by another 16 points. Bulls were unable to make any impact during the day's trading.

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The June contract closed with a loss of 12 points with respect to Wednesday's close.

The day's market action resulted in terminating the uptrend in the June contract. The long trade exited around the break-even level. Bearish trigger level for the June contract has been moved closer. Bear move on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in the June contract.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the list remain unchanged. Tata Steel, Reliance and State Bank were the top three traded counters in this segment. For those still holding long positions in Bank of Baroda, Maruti and PNB may do so with the stop-loss placed at Rs 204.45, Rs 459.95 and Rs 391.80 respectively.

Bear move on Friday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. The lone downtrend counter - Arvind Mill - is likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in as much as eight counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

The best bet for Friday's trading is likely to be the selling in Tata Motors. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within a rupee from the last traded price. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to trigger the downtrend in the stock.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 active counters list. The ranking of the list underwent a change. Infosys and Reliance interchanged their positions.

Except for the downtrend in ONGC, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in seven counters.

A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Tata Motors.

Selling in Satyam is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Sell level for this counter is placed quite closer to the current level. Bear move on Friday is likely to initiate the downtrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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