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Tuesday, Jun 14, 2005

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Indecisive move

K. Premkumar

THOUGH bulls were in command on Monday's trading activity, they had less impact on the tradeable counters.

The sentiment reading of the tradeable counters remains bearish. Further bull move on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

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Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hour of day's trading, the June contract lost around 15 points. Bears failed to capitalise on it as they yielded to bull pressure.

The June contract moved within a band of 29 points registering a high of 2,087.85. It closed higher with a gain of 10 points over the previous close.

The short position in the June contract survived from the day's action.

However, this is likely to be terminated on Tuesday.

The exit and bullish trigger levels for the June contract are placed quite closer to the current level.

Bull domination on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing downtrend in the June contract.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top 10 tradeable counters. Reliance, Satyam and Tata Steel were the top three traded counters in this segment.

Bull pressure on Tuesday could be a threat to the prevailing downtrend counters in the list.

On the other hand, the uptrend in Arvind Mill, NTPC and Reliance is likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters.

For Tuesday, the best bet is likely to be the selling in NTPC. This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and sell level for this counter are placed closer to the last traded value. Bear move on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in NTPC.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top 10 active counters remains intact. Bears were successful to the extent of terminating the uptrend in SAIL.

For Tuesday, most of the counters in the list are likely to be under threat.

Bears are likely to have opportunity in ONGC, Satyam and SAIL. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, SAIL and SBI.

The best among the above is likely to be the selling in SAIL. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within a rupee from the last traded price.

Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in SAIL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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