The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon in a weak phase; yet to progress beyond Goa

FURTHER progress of the southwest monsoon beyond Goa on the west coast is not expected until Sunday next, although Konkan and Goa, including Mumbai, may receive light to moderate rains from Friday.

Model projections by the New Delhi-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) over the next five days suggest a gradual increase in lower level (up to 1.5 km height) monsoon flow over Arabian Sea from Friday and the trend will continue until Sunday.

An increasing trend in moisture level will be noticeable in the lower level as well.

Favourable build-up of circulation during the three days starting Wednesday will result in increased rainfall over south peninsular India from May 18 onwards. There will also be a slight northward progress of the rain, though not very marked.

The NCMRWF assessment is that monsoon will revive over the south peninsula during the next three days.

However, the revival is not expected to be of the `classical type'.

Progressive increase in rainfall activity over the North-East Thursday onwards, which may lead to onset of monsoon over these States by Friday, is also forecast.

The NCMRWF prediction also suggests considerable reduction in the severity of heat wave conditions in Orissa, Jharkhand and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next three days.

The southwest monsoon, declared to have set in on June 5, covered entire Kerala, coastal Karnataka and some parts of Tamil Nadu by June 6.

It covered some more parts of coastal Karnataka, south interior Karnataka and more parts of Tamil Nadu by June 7.

It reached up to Goa on the June 8, but has not advanced further since. It has been in a weak phase from June 10 onwards.

The normal date of onset of monsoon over the North-East is June 1, but even after 15 days it is yet to arrive there.

Going by normal dates, the monsoon should have covered the entire peninsular India, the north-eastern States, the East up to East Uttar Pradesh (up to Varanasi), most parts of Central India and South Gujarat (June 15).

As on June 8, 27 of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions had deficient, scanty or no rain.

The all-India figure of rainfall was 52 per cent below normal. The picture as on June 15 is yet to be assessed, but is expected to be worse as the system remained in a weak phase during the past five days.

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