The Hindu Business Line : Is India shining for the jobless?

THERE is ample evidence today that, to the world at large, India as a nation has come of age. In "informed" drawing rooms, across negotiating tables, at international forums, India has carved out for itself a distinct niche.

But this niche is different from that carved out by countries such as South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan, economies which have dazzled the world with their technological and trade prowess.

There are two reasons why India is different from these countries. The first is the country's sheer size which sets it apart from every other country except China.

It is so much easier to comprehend the impact of a small economy like Singapore making a splash in the world economy than, say, a country like India with more than a billion people.

The same argument would hold good for China for the same reason, which is perhaps why the economic frontrunners today are taking the emergence of these two Asian economic behemoths so very seriously for future calculations.

The second reason is the fact that India's is an old and rich civilisation. When such "pre-eminence" is coupled techno-economic "excellence", the end-result tends to overshadow all other economic-miracle stories that have been around for decades.

What this particular amalgam is all about is the depth of the "content" of the economic achievement, the natural expectation being that it weighs more than the case with, say, Singapore or South Korea. But, the Indian experience can be fairly compared with that of China for many reasons.

The latest bit of evidence suggesting the possible graduation of India into the economic super-league is the fact that, in the last six months, Indian airline companies have been responsible for placing 43 per cent of total global orders for new aircraft with Boeing and Airbus (250 aircraft specifically, according to reports). The enormity of this proportion can be better understood if one assumed that the figure relates to, say, China, the immediate inference being that the Chinese economy must be booming if it can place so high an order for new aircraft. For Indians, this is a happy thought.

In fact, in these difficult times — in terms of GDP growth the world over — the growth rate of the Indian economy is being estimated at between 6.5 and 7.5 per cent, which is impressive by any standard.

But is this reason enough for us to go over the moon, to pat ourselves on the back and say that we have arrived?

Indeed, there is no dearth of Cassandras who are busy propagating the argument that if one takes away the IT phenomenon from the Indian economic performance and closes once again (selectively or otherwise) the door to foreign investment, the country will be back to square one as regards its economy.

This, clearly, is not a savoury point of view because what it tries to tell us is that nothing much has happened internally in terms of rapidly-rising productivity or a vastly improved work culture.

In fact, if the latest census figures are any indication, the employment scenario has deteriorated, so much so that in the space of a decade the number of unemployed persons has climbed four times — from 10.8 million in 1991 to 44.5 million in 2001.

Of course, it may be said that this is a transitional phase; that the numbers jobless will start declining once the reformed economy begins pulsating with activity. As an argument, this is acceptable because it pursues the line set by conventional wisdom.

But such arguments tend to perpetuate themselves on paper unless backed by a determined effort by the powers-that-be to translate precept into practice. Can we honestly say that Indian is truly shining today as far as this specific aspect of reform is concerned?

Ranabir Ray Choudhury

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