The Hindu Business Line : Relief for farmers

AFTER A RATHER prolonged delay that raised the anxiety levels of farmers and policy-makers alike, the south-west monsoon mercifully advanced into Maharashtra and South Gujarat over the weekend after stalling near Goa for several days. Cloud formation points to the possibility of copious precipitation, likely to cover most of the southern States. The expectation is that it will pan out well across the country's central and northern parts in the course of the next few days. While fears of an early-season drought have considerably diminished now, what the monsoon has in store over the next three months is anybody's guess. Ironically, conflicting predictions coming from different weathermen have left many wondering about the reliability of their forecasting ability. A note of caution sounded by the Prime Minister a few weeks ago urging State governments to be ready with contingency plans in the event of a truant monsoon added to the suspense whether the Government had any undisclosed additional information or forecast different from what the India Meteorological Department had stated on record.

One cannot but re-emphasise that this country needs fairly reliable forecasts of the south-west monsoon rainfall in terms of both its spatial and temporal distribution in order to ensure a decent rate of agricultural growth. Notwithstanding the belief in some quarters that India's dependence on the monsoon is diminishing and that economic growth will continue to be strong despite an aberrant monsoon, the fact remains that India is still an agrarian economy with agriculture contributing to as much as a fourth of the gross domestic product and with over 60 per cent of the population dependent on agriculture and allied activities for its livelihood. Robust growth in the industrial and services sectors will, no doubt, benefit the economy by generating large incomes; but such growth — to the exclusion of agriculture — will be at the cost of equity or, in any case, will not subserve equity. However unpalatable it may be, it must be stated that even five decades after Independence, it is only agriculture that can ensure growth with equity because of the large employment that it provides. The economy is still not really drought-proof. Food security, while not exactly fragile, is but susceptible to even minor changes in output. That even a small decline in output tends to push prices up disconcertingly was demonstrated yet again this summer in the case of wheat.

Given that there are divergent views on the possible behaviour of the monsoon this season, State governments have to be in a state of readiness to implement contingency plans, should the rainfall be different from normal. Close monitoring of the progress of the south-west monsoon is necessary. Delayed sowing will result in the kharif season harvest being pushed back by about a fortnight; but that is unlikely to make any serious difference to output. At this point of time it would be a matter of conjecture to say whether the production targets set by the Government for various kharif crops of 2005 will be achieved. Fortunately, public stocks of foodgrains are comfortable enough to meet the requirements of the coming months, while the prices of various essential commodities are, by and large, at levels that are consumer-friendly. If other conditions remain unchanged, inflation can be kept under control.

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