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Thursday, Jun 23, 2005

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Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

BULLS extended further pressure over Wednesday's trading activity. Their dominance for the third successive trading day left the bears stranded. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands strongly bullish. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to reduce the bull count by a considerable margin thereby resulting change in the sentiment reading.

Nifty futures recommendation: The near month June contract opened two points above and made steady gains during the day's trading. During the close, bears managed to make a partial recovery. The June contract moved within a band of 27 points registering an intra-day high of 2177. It closed with a gain of around 17 points over Tuesday's close.

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Bull move led to the initiation of the uptrend in the June contract. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, the initiated long position is unlikely to be disturbed. Bearish trigger level for the June contract is placed far away and this unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list underwent a change. Satyam and Tata Steel interchanged their positions.

Bear move on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. The lone downtrend counter-Arvind Mills is likely to be safe. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Polaris Soft. Selling in State Bank is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and bearish trigger levels for this counter are placed closer to the last traded price. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger these levels.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 active counters list. The ranking of the list had few changes. Tata Steel moved to the fifth position and Ranbaxy to the ninth position.

Except for the lone downtrend counter, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in five counters. Buy levels for all the counters are placed slightly away from the closing values. For Thursday, the best bet is likely to be the selling in State Bank. The exit and sell levels for this counter are placed quite closer to the current level. Bear move on Thursday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in State Bank.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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