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Thursday, Jun 30, 2005

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Indecisive move

K. Premkumar

THOUGH bulls were in command of Wednesday's trading activity they had very little impact on the top-10 tradable counters. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remained bearish.

Further bull move on Thursday is likely to turn the sentiment reading to bullish. Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in the value.

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Nifty futures recommendation: During the opening of Wednesday's trading, the June month contract shed around 32 points. Thereafter, bulls made an instant recovery and wiped out their losses. The June contract moved within a band of 64 points registering an intra-day high of 2,198.30. It closed higher with a gain of 29 points over previous close.

Initial bear move led to the reversal of the uptrend in the June contract. The initiated short position was terminated during the later part of the day's activity. Both the long trade as well as the short trade suffered considerable losses. Tomorrow being the expiry for the June contract, entry levels are given for the July contract. Bullish trigger level for the July contract is placed very close to the last traded value. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to initiate the uptrend in the July contract.

Stock futures recommendation: There were neither new entries nor exits in the top-10 active counters list. The ranking of the list had few changes. Tata Steel moved to the second position and Polaris to the seventh position. For those still holding short position in Ranbaxy may do so with the stop loss placed at 1,077.05.

For Thursday, most of the counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Fresh entry levels for all the counters are given for the July contract. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in seven counters. Selling opportunities are likely in three counters. Buying in Infosys is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. This counter is in the downtrend. The exit and bullish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to the current level. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to reverse the prevailing downtrend in Infosys.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had some changes. Tata Steel moved to the fourth position and SAIL moved to the eighth position.

Bull pressure on Thursday could be a threat to the prevailing downtrend counters. On the contrary, the uptrend in Hindustan Lever and ONGC are likely to be terminated. Buying opportunities are likely in four counters. Selling opportunities are likely in three counters. For Thursday, the best bet is likely to be the buying in State Bank. This counter is in the downtrend. Bull move on Thursday has the potential to reverse the prevailing downtrend in State Bank.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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