The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon covers entire country before time

RIDING piggyback on a fortuitous combination of helpful atmospheric systems, the southwest monsoon managed to cover the entire country on Thursday, a full 15 days ahead of schedule.

But this hardly provides any guarantee of the four-month season turning in a surplus, Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), told Business Line.

The monsoon depression now stationed over Jharkhand had combined with the mid-tropospheric circulation (MTC) over Gujarat to set up the perfect launch pad for the system to cover the remaining parts of the mainland in one fell swoop.

The depression is expected to die out after moving in a west-northwesterly direction, leading to a lull in rain activity in regions westward up to east Madhya Pradesh. It lacks the strength to move further west.

Also, a western disturbance is approaching the northwest, pausing hindrance to its westward movement. It is likely to move with a bias to the north and dissipate. While doing so, it will continue to feed on the good monsoonal flow and bring rain along to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the next few days.

On the western flank, Gujarat and western Rajasthan can expect to get some relief for a day or two in tandem with the weakening of the depression, but only just about. "Because, the MTC (positioned between 3-5 km in the atmosphere) is still very much live and on its own can continue to attract moisture and dump rain in these parts," Dr Gupta said.

Unlike other systems, the MTC largely stays put to around its origins and has longer shelf life extending to even 15 days. The depression was only a willing partner for the MTC, and when they combine, 1+1 does not give two, but 11. This was reflected in the way the monsoon behaved post-June 27, with the `low' deepening into a depression and rampaging its way into the north and the west.

Over the next 3-4 days, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls has been forecast over Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, north Konkan, while it will be fairly widespread over east Rajasthan, south Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada. West Rajasthan is likely to experience scattered rain during the next three days.

The MTC and the low/depression are a normal feature for any monsoon but their concurrent development can drive up precipitation potential manifold. The MTC thrives on the feed from the Arabian Sea while the `low' is dependent on the moisture from the Bay. Even if the `low' were to run out of steam, the MTC will able to provide it with the feed, and vice versa.

Dr Gupta said there are chances that another `low' might take shape in the Bay sooner than later. But the exact prediction on its genesis would take another day or two.

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