The Hindu Business Line : Fresh spell of rains expected as Gujarat situation eases

THE National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has kept up its vigil for the fresh low-pressure area brewing over northwest Bay of Bengal even as the mid-tropospheric circulation over Gujarat weakened on Monday.

In an update, the centre said the `low' would take shape in 48 hours, more or less in alignment with the forecast issued on Sunday when it had indicated the organisation of the system by Wednesday.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, NCMRWF, told Business Line that a cyclonic circulation has already formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh. This is expected to concentrate into a `low' over the next 36 to 48 hours.

Meanwhile, the mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation over Gujarat and neighbourhood that helped sustain the prevailing depression bringing in floodwaters surging over most of the land, has weakened. According to the NCMRWF, this development would lead to substantial reduction in rainfall over the region.

But the depression had continued to persist in a stationary mode on Monday afternoon and lay over north Madhya Pradesh close to Khajuraho. The system was expected to move slowly in a north-westerly direction and could possibly interact with the prevailing eastward-bound western disturbance lying in wait over northwest India.

The emerging scenario is expected to bring fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy rains in some parts of northwest India over the next 2-3 days.

The ongoing widespread rainfall activity over central parts of the country may continue for another two days, the NCMRWF said. In the west, fairly widespread rains are also expected over south Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra during the next 3-4 days. The State of Gujarat, east Rajasthan and Vidarbha are likely to experience scattered to fairly widespread rains.

Due to possible interaction of northwestward moving monsoon system with the eastward moving western disturbance, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity is expected over the northwest India during next 2-3 days.

In the east and northeast, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity is expected over east Uttar Pradesh and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and the northeastern States. Rainfall activity over Orissa and West Bengal is tipped to enhance from Wednesday to Friday.

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