The Hindu Business Line : A repeat of Madrid in London

The Al Qaeda is suspect No 1 for the serial blasts that rocked London on Thursday. Investigations by the security agencies of West Europe after the Madrid blasts last March had revealed that the Al Qaeda had significant support in the Muslim Diaspora of the Continent. B. Raman says the latest strike was surely planned to coincide with the G-8 meeting, to create maximum impact, and take advantage of the diverted attention of the British agencies in protecting the VIPs attending the summit.

THE synchronised explosions in London on Thursday appear to be the handiwork of the Al Qaeda and the International Islamic Front (IIF) formed by it in February 1998.

The first indication that pro-Al Qaeda elements were planning a major terrorist strike in London came last August following the arrest in Lahore by the Pakistani authorities of Mohammad Naeem Noor Khan, a Pakistani computer expert, who used to live alternately in London and Pakistan. During his interrogation, he admitted to working for the Al Qaeda as a communications expert and that he used to transmit all messages from Osama bin Laden and other leaders in a coded form to the cadres in different countries. He also reportedly told the Pakistani authorities that the Al Qaeda had planned a terrorist strike at London's Heathrow airport.

On the basis of the information given by Noor Khan, the British authorities arrested Dhiren Bharot alias Bilal, a Hindu convert to Islam, and 11 others, seven of them of Pakistani origin. Noor Khan was reported to have told the Pakistani authorities that Dhiren, who was also known as al-Brittani, was the leader of an Al Qaeda cell in the UK and had in the past been sent by Khalid Sheikh Mohammad of the Al Qaeda, which had orchestrated the 9/11 terrorist strikes, to the US to identify suitable economic targets in New York. The British authorities did not give details of what they had ascertained during the interrogation of the arrested persons, but gave out that their interrogation did not corroborate the Pakistani version of a planned terrorist strike in Heathrow.

Investigations made by the intelligence and security agencies of West Europe after the Madrid blasts of March 2004, revealed that the Al Qaeda had a large number of supporters in the Muslim Diaspora of West Europe.

In its annual report on the action against terrorism in Europe, the EU had also drawn attention to this fact. Moroccans and Pakistanis constituted the largest number of terrorist suspects arrested and questioned in West Europe last year. About 70 Muslims from the UK, many of them of Pakistani origin, were estimated to have gone to Iraq last year and joined the Al Qaeda unit there headed by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Following the reported participation of one of them in a suicide mission, the British Police recently made some arrests in the UK, but they have not revealed the identities of those arrested.

Thus, the British authorities were apparently aware of the presence of suspected Al Qaeda sleeper cells in the Muslim Diaspora in the UK and had been closely monitoring their activities for nearly a year. The fact that despite this, the perpetrators of the blasts managed to carry them out speak of their motivation and the ability to plan and execute terrorist strikes in total secrecy.

To a request from a US security consultancy group asking for my comments on likely future scenarios in the US homeland, I had stated as follows on June 19: "A new anti-US hub, which is emerging, is the Muslim Diaspora in West Europe, consisting of Muslims, who had migrated to different countries of West Europe from the countries of the Islamic world. Osama bin Laden and his ideology have a growing following in this Diaspora — particularly amongst Muslims of Moroccan and Pakistani origin, who constitute the largest number of terrorist suspects detained for questioning in connection with the investigation of different terrorist incidents. The countries needing a special watch are the UK, Spain and France.

"It is my assessment that there is likely to be another attempt for a 9/11-like terrorist strike in the US homeland in retaliation for the alleged desecration of the Holy Koran. Saudi, Moroccan and Pakistani nationals or foreign nationals of Saudi, Moroccan and Pakistani origin are likely to play the leadership as well as the foot-jihadi roles in the efforts to plan, mount and execute another catastrophic terrorist strike in the US homeland. Saudis are in the forefront of the current terrorist wave in Iraq and Pakistanis in Afghanistan. Moroccans played a central role in the terrorist strikes in Madrid last year."

I had also assessed as follows: "While the devices used for triggering off an explosion are becoming more and more sophisticated, the explosives actually used are more and more commonplace. The use of sophisticated explosives such as the Semtex, the RDX, etc., has given place to more commonplace ones such as nitrogenous fertilisers, whose acquisition is unlikely to give rise to suspicion. It is only a question of time before the terrorists start using the fuel contained in the tank of any automobile as an explosive and incendiary device for causing casualties and material damage. All they need to do is to devise a mechanism by which a suicide terrorist can cause an explosion in his fuel tank while at the steering wheel of his vehicle. If they manage to do so, prevention can become an impossibility."

My assessment was that the next Al Qaeda strike would be in the US. Instead, it was in the UK. It is apparent that the terrorist strikes had been deliberately planned to coincide with the G-8 summit, to create the maximum impact and take advantage of the fact that the attention of the British agencies would have been focussed on protecting the VIPs attending the summit.

(The author, a former Additional Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, is Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and a Distinguished Fellow and Convenor, Observer Research Foundation, Chennai Chapter. E-mail: itschen36@gmail.com)

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