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Friday, Jul 08, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear onslaught

K. Premkumar

BEARS were in total command of Thursday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bearish.

Bull domination on Friday is likely to reduce the bear count marginally. Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The near month July contract opened five points lower than the previous close and relentlessly made losses. Bears stronghold over the day left the bulls totally stranded. The July contract moved within a band of 69 points. It closed lower with a loss of around 68 points with respect to Wednesday's close.

Bear onslaught during the day led to the reversal of the uptrend in the July contract. The long trade exited with a profit of around 10 points. In the normal course of trading on Friday, the initiated short position is unlikely to be disturbed.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had few changes. Tata Motors moved to the sixth position followed by NTPC and ICICI Bank.

Bull pressure on Friday is likely to terminate the uptrend in NTPC and Tata Steel. The prevailing downtrend counters in the list are likely to be safe. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in two counters. For Friday, the best bet is likely to be the selling in Infosys. This counter is in the sideways mode. Sell level for this counter is placed quite closer to the current level. Bear move on Friday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Infosys.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list too remains unchanged. Thursday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter - Reliance.

None of the counters in the list are in the uptrend. Except for the downtrend in IPCL, all the other counters in the list are likely to be safe.

For Friday, five opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading. The best is likely to be the selling in Infosys. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to the last traded price. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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