The Hindu Business Line : Economics of demography

ROBERT Malthus was concerned with the rapid rise in population outpacing the increase in production of food grains. And in those days (18th century), he was right in cautioning people that unless voluntary checks were exercised to control the increase in the number of mouths to feed, famine, pestilence and war would restore equilibrium.

Later, with the development in science and technology, the possibilities of optimum utilisation of the existing resources opened up and Malthus' fears were almost belied and fresh thinking began on the subject.

If there were hungry stomachs, there were also empty lands for occupation and cultivation.

In the study of demography, questions relating to the composition of a population assumed importance; in that, besides birth rate and death rate, other factors such as sex ratio and age groups were found to be of greater importance than mere number vis-à-vis resources available.

Interestingly, these two factors give rise to unexpected problems, some of them a bit startling.

For instance, what if the number of females per 1000 males kept decreasing? Will the number of males engaged in household chores increase? Will there be a drastic change in the gender ratio in certain occupations? In Japan, for example, males prefer to stay at home and prefer to send women to work.

Again, what will be the implications of a reduction in sex ratio on matrimony? The possibilities, some of them disturbing, are many.

As for the `age' factor, fall in the birth rate accompanied by improvements in medical facilities — `welfare' being the goal of modern governments — would result in the proportion of senior citizens rising. Earning younger groups in Western societies are already facing the result of this phenomenon.

Besides, there is pressure on the exchequer too. Old age pension and service pensions will have to be paid for longer periods than in the earlier times.

Then, whoever would imagine that a university in Japan (remember that is one of the G7 nations) declared bankruptcy and is on the verge of closure. Reason? Shortage of boys and girls in the age group suitable for college studies!

K. Gopalan

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